Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mason MarchmentGoals1
- Tyler SeguinAssists1
- Mason MarchmentPoints1
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists2
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints3
Scoring summary
- P29:49Ryan O'Reilly Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (45), Jonathan Marchessault (35)1–5
- P26:31Jonathan Marchessault Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (26), Filip Forsberg (44)1–4
- P119:45Justin Barron Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Luke Evangelista (22), Ryan O'Reilly (32)1–3
- P113:51Jakub Vrana Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Oesterle (6), Fedor Svechkov (9)1–2
- P113:02Jordan Oesterle Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (31)1–1
- P10:16Mason Marchment Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (52), Tyler Seguin (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:16Mason Marchment Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (52), Tyler Seguin (12)DAL 1 – 0 NSH · DAL 61% → 74% +13DAL 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P113:02Jordan Oesterle Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (31)DAL 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 25% → 40% +15NSH 25% → 40%+15 pts
- P113:51Jakub Vrana Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Oesterle (6), Fedor Svechkov (9)DAL 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 40% → 56% +16NSH 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P119:45Justin Barron Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Luke Evangelista (22), Ryan O'Reilly (32)DAL 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 58% → 74% +16NSH 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P26:31Jonathan Marchessault Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (26), Filip Forsberg (44)DAL 1 – 4 NSH · NSH 78% → 89% +12NSH 78% → 89%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 61%
- ML DAL -175 / NSH +150
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- DAL: Elo 62.1%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- DAL -159
- NSH +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.6 – 2.9 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −4 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +86 Elo | DAL 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 62.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.632nd of 32 |
| 5th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.830th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 50.6%10th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 89.1%29th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 4th of 3222–17 | Road vs home | 19–2124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–44 | 32–49 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–39 | 10–30 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders | 37–44 | 33–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–3 NSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.