Washington Capitals at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Alex OvechkinAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints2
Blue Jackets- Denton MateychukGoals1
- Sean MonahanAssists1
- Denton MateychukPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:37Connor McMichael Goal (1) Batted, assists: Alex Ovechkin (5), Aliaksei Protas (5)5–1
- P315:39Tom Wilson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Ethen Frank (1), John Carlson (5)4–1
- P310:20Denton Mateychuk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (2), Dmitri Voronkov (4)3–1
- P32:40Justin Sourdif Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (1), Logan Thompson (1)3–0
- P31:36Alex Ovechkin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (8)2–0
- P218:19John Carlson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (2), Hendrix Lapierre (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:19John Carlson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (2), Hendrix Lapierre (2)WSH 1 – 0 CBJ · WSH 51% → 73% +23WSH 51% → 73%+23 pts
- P31:36Alex Ovechkin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (8)WSH 2 – 0 CBJ · WSH 75% → 91% +16WSH 75% → 91%+16 pts
- P32:40Justin Sourdif Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (1), Logan Thompson (1)WSH 3 – 0 CBJ · WSH 92% → 98% +6WSH 92% → 98%+6 pts
- P310:20Denton Mateychuk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (2), Dmitri Voronkov (4)WSH 3 – 1 CBJ · CBJ <1% → 3% +3CBJ <1% → 3%+3 pts
- P315:39Tom Wilson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Ethen Frank (1), John Carlson (5)WSH 4 – 1 CBJ · WSH >99% → >99% +0WSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 51%
- ML WSH -115 / CBJ -105
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- WSH: Elo 47.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -104
- CBJ +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.3 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +19 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.48 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +17 Elo | CBJ 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 1st of 321.9 | Goals allowed | 2.710th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.1 | Margin | +0.511th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3257.0% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 32 |
| 2nd of 3292.9% | Save percentage | 92.7%3rd of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 1–225th of 32 |
| 25th of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 15107th of 32 |
| 7th of 321530 | Elo rating | 149817th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–3 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 1–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–2 CBJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.