Vancouver Canucks at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Teddy BluegerGoals1
- Evander KaneAssists1
- Teddy BluegerPoints1
Capitals- Jakob ChychrunGoals1
- Dylan StromeAssists2
- Tom WilsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:46John Carlson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (6), Tom Wilson (6)4–3
- P39:01Jakob Chychrun Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (1), Rasmus Sandin (2)4–2
- P213:42Ryan Leonard Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (5), Dylan Strome (5)4–1
- P24:54Teddy Blueger Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Evander Kane (3), Tyler Myers (2)4–0
- P117:52Kiefer Sherwood Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (5), Quinn Hughes (4)3–0
- P117:11Tyler Myers Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P10:59Elias Pettersson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:59Elias Pettersson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (4)VAN 1 – 0 WSH · VAN 41% → 56% +15VAN 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P117:11Tyler Myers Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVAN 2 – 0 WSH · VAN 60% → 75% +15VAN 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P117:52Kiefer Sherwood Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (5), Quinn Hughes (4)VAN 3 – 0 WSH · VAN 75% → 87% +12VAN 75% → 87%+12 pts
- P24:54Teddy Blueger Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Evander Kane (3), Tyler Myers (2)VAN 4 – 0 WSH · VAN 90% → 96% +6VAN 90% → 96%+6 pts
- P39:01Jakob Chychrun Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (1), Rasmus Sandin (2)VAN 4 – 2 WSH · WSH <1% → 5% +5WSH <1% → 5%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 59%
- ML VAN +135 / WSH -155
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 57.5%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- WSH -143
- VAN +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.5 – 3.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −6 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +53 Elo | WSH 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.821st of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 1.61st of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +1.24th of 32 |
| 26th of 3245.2% | Shot share | 55.8%5th of 32 |
| 6th of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 94.4%2nd of 32 |
| 9th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–17th of 32 |
| 16th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149321st of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Elo rating | 15309th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–2 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.