Vancouver Canucks at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Max SassonGoals1
- Linus KarlssonAssists1
- Jake DeBruskPoints1
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals1
- Sam RinzelAssists1
- Tyler BertuzziPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Brock Boeser Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P213:42Max Sasson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (3), Linus Karlsson (1)2–2
- P26:49Jake DeBrusk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (3), Quinn Hughes (3)1–2
- P119:14Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Rinzel (1)0–2
- P112:41Ryan Donato Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Andre Burakovsky (2), Artyom Levshunov (2)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:41Ryan Donato Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Andre Burakovsky (2), Artyom Levshunov (2)VAN 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 46% → 62% +16CHI 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P119:14Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Rinzel (1)VAN 0 – 2 CHI · CHI 64% → 79% +15CHI 64% → 79%+15 pts
- P26:49Jake DeBrusk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (3), Quinn Hughes (3)VAN 1 – 2 CHI · VAN 18% → 34% +16VAN 18% → 34%+16 pts
- P213:42Max Sasson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (3), Linus Karlsson (1)VAN 2 – 2 CHI · VAN 32% → 53% +21VAN 32% → 53%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 54%
- ML VAN -130 / CHI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- VAN: Elo 48.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- VAN -119
- CHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.9 – 2.6 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +7 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +10 Elo | CHI 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.66th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.85th of 32 |
| 26th of 3244.0% | Shot share | 42.5%29th of 32 |
| 6th of 3291.7% | Save percentage | 90.4%15th of 32 |
| 13th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 32 |
| 7th of 321523 | Opponent Elo | 151012th of 32 |
| 16th of 321497 | Elo rating | 142731st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  VAN |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–43 | 44–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–25 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 29–18 | 43–35 |
| Overs–unders | 39–43 | 46–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 6–0 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.