Chicago Blackhawks at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Teuvo TeravainenGoals1
- Tyler BertuzziAssists2
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints2
Panthers- A.J. GreerGoals1
- Mackie SamoskevichAssists2
- Mackie SamoskevichPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:40Jesper Boqvist Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (2), Evan Rodrigues (1)2–3
- P21:09Teuvo Teravainen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (1), Tyler Bertuzzi (2)2–2
- P114:08Carter Verhaeghe Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (1)1–2
- P111:06A.J. Greer Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonah Gadjovich (1), Gustav Forsling (1)1–1
- P110:03Frank Nazar Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (1), Teuvo Teravainen (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:03Frank Nazar Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (1), Teuvo Teravainen (1)CHI 1 – 0 FLA · CHI 31% → 46% +15CHI 31% → 46%+15 pts
- P111:06A.J. Greer Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonah Gadjovich (1), Gustav Forsling (1)CHI 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 54% → 69% +15FLA 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P114:08Carter Verhaeghe Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (1)CHI 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 68% → 82% +13FLA 68% → 82%+13 pts
- P21:09Teuvo Teravainen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (1), Tyler Bertuzzi (2)CHI 2 – 2 FLA · CHI 19% → 33% +14CHI 19% → 33%+14 pts
- P39:40Jesper Boqvist Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (2), Evan Rodrigues (1)CHI 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 59% → 87% +28FLA 59% → 87%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 71%
- ML CHI +230 / FLA -280
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- FLA: Elo 74.3%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- FLA -243
- CHI +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.1 – 3.4 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +185 Elo | FLA 74.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 76.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 75.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.0% | Shot share | 54.6%2nd of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 90.5%10th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 30th of 3210–31 | Road vs home | 26–149th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  CHI |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–38 | 53–52 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 36–48 |
| Underdog | 43–35 | 17–4 |
| Overs–unders | 46–36 | 54–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–2 FLA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.