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Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast

Final/OTSeries tied 2-2

Away

Oilers

48-29-5

5–4

at

Home

Panthers

47-31-4

EDM 44%FLA 56%

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Amerant Bank Arena · TNT, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.

FLA favored EDM favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTFLA50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Panthers

Scoring summary

  • OT11:18Leon Draisaitl Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (7), Mattias Ekholm (4)5–4
  • P319:40Sam Reinhart Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (14), Sam Bennett (7)4–4
  • P313:36Jake Walman Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (3), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (14)4–3
  • P215:05Vasily Podkolzin Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Darnell Nurse (4), Leon Draisaitl (21)3–3
  • P212:47Darnell Nurse Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (3), Adam Henrique (3)2–3
  • P23:33Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (20), Connor McDavid (26)1–3
  • P119:18Anton Lundell Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (13), Sam Reinhart (12)0–3
  • P116:56Matthew Tkachuk Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (11), Aleksander Barkov (13)0–2
  • P111:40Matthew Tkachuk Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (12)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P111:40Matthew Tkachuk Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (12)EDM 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 56% → 71% +15
  2. P215:05Vasily Podkolzin Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Darnell Nurse (4), Leon Draisaitl (21)EDM 3 – 3 FLA · EDM 25% → 46% +21
  3. P313:36Jake Walman Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (3), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (14)EDM 4 – 3 FLA · EDM 48% → 86% +38
  4. P319:40Sam Reinhart Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (14), Sam Bennett (7)EDM 4 – 4 FLA · FLA <1% → 50% +50
  5. OT11:18Leon Draisaitl Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (7), Mattias Ekholm (4)EDM 5 – 4 FLA · EDM 48% → 100% +52

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Panthers 56%

LeanMiss
EDM 44%FLA 56%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
FLA 56%
ML EDM +120 / FLA -140
Pre-line forecast
FLA 58%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
FLA 57%
Ratings vs. market
+0.5 pts
FLA: Elo 56.7%, market 56.2%
Fair odds
FLA -128
EDM +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 3.1 – 3.4 FLA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMFLAWhy
Team rating15781585Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−2+3EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsFLA +47 EloFLA 56.7%
Market-implied ratingsFLA 58.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastFLA 58.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastFLA 56.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatFLA
11th of 323.2Goals scored3.114th of 32
14th of 322.9Goals allowed2.76th of 32
11th of 32+0.3Margin+0.410th of 32
3rd of 3254.3%Shot share54.6%2nd of 32
19th of 3289.7%Save percentage90.5%10th of 32
3rd of 327–3Last 103–725th of 32
4th of 3223–18Road vs home26–149th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersPanthers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMFLA
Puck line41–6051–51
Last 106–48–2
Favorite24–5335–47
Underdog17–716–4
Overs–unders48–5352–50
Overs–unders, last 106–47–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 4–10 FLA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.