Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast

FinalEDM wins series 4-1

Away

Oilers

48-29-5

6–3

at

Home

Stars

50-26-6

EDM 46%DAL 54%

You didn't pick this one.

American Airlines Center · ESPN, ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.

DAL favored EDM favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3DAL50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Oilers

Scoring summary

  • P319:49Kasperi Kapanen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–3
  • P33:21Evander Kane Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (18), Jake Walman (5)5–3
  • P30:38Jason Robertson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (13), Thomas Harley (10)4–3
  • P214:28Connor McDavid Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (1)4–2
  • P212:27Roope Hintz Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (6), Thomas Harley (9)3–2
  • P111:40Jason Robertson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (5)3–1
  • P18:07Jeff Skinner Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (2), Trent Frederic (3)3–0
  • P17:09Mattias Janmark Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (4), Jake Walman (4)2–0
  • P12:31Corey Perry Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (20), Leon Draisaitl (17)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P12:31Corey Perry Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (20), Leon Draisaitl (17)EDM 1 – 0 DAL · EDM 46% → 61% +15
  2. P212:27Roope Hintz Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (6), Thomas Harley (9)EDM 3 – 2 DAL · DAL 16% → 32% +16
  3. P214:28Connor McDavid Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (1)EDM 4 – 2 DAL · EDM 69% → 85% +17
  4. P30:38Jason Robertson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (13), Thomas Harley (10)EDM 4 – 3 DAL · DAL 11% → 28% +17
  5. P33:21Evander Kane Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (18), Jake Walman (5)EDM 5 – 3 DAL · EDM 74% → 91% +17

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Stars 54%

Toss-upMiss
EDM 46%DAL 54%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
DAL 54%
ML EDM +110 / DAL -130
Pre-line forecast
DAL 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DAL 50%
Ratings vs. market
−3.9 pts
DAL: Elo 50.4%, market 54.3%
Fair odds
DAL -119
EDM +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 2.6 – 2.9 DAL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMDALWhy
Team rating15791552Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+3−3EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsDAL +3 EloDAL 50.4%
Market-implied ratingsDAL 52.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDAL 52.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDAL 54.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatDAL
11th of 323.2Goals scored3.43rd of 32
14th of 322.9Goals allowed2.77th of 32
11th of 32+0.3Margin+0.65th of 32
3rd of 3254.3%Shot share49.4%18th of 32
19th of 3289.7%Save percentage91.1%4th of 32
3rd of 327–3Last 103–725th of 32
4th of 3223–18Road vs home28–126th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersStars
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMDAL
Puck line40–5744–55
Last 108–23–7
Favorite24–5133–43
Underdog16–611–12
Overs–unders44–5344–55
Overs–unders, last 105–53–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 9–7 DAL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.