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Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast

FinalDAL leads series 1-0

Away

Oilers

48-29-5

3–6

at

Home

Stars

50-26-6

EDM 45%DAL 55%

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American Airlines Center · ESPN, ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.

DAL favored EDM favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3DAL50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Stars

Scoring summary

  • P316:45Esa Lindell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–6
  • P316:02Tyler Seguin Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Sam Steel (6), Jason Robertson (2)3–5
  • P35:58Matt Duchene Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (6), Mikko Rantanen (11)3–4
  • P33:49Mikael Granlund Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (3), Tyler Seguin (4)3–3
  • P30:32Miro Heiskanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (4), Mason Marchment (4)3–2
  • P27:48Evan Bouchard Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (7), Leon Draisaitl (13)3–1
  • P26:08Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (16), Leon Draisaitl (12)2–1
  • P115:22Tyler Seguin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
  • P110:19Leon Draisaitl Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (3), Connor McDavid (15)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P115:22Tyler Seguin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: noneEDM 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 38% → 55% +17
  2. P26:08Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (16), Leon Draisaitl (12)EDM 2 – 1 DAL · EDM 46% → 65% +19
  3. P30:32Miro Heiskanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (4), Mason Marchment (4)EDM 3 – 2 DAL · DAL 11% → 29% +17
  4. P33:49Mikael Granlund Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (3), Tyler Seguin (4)EDM 3 – 3 DAL · DAL 26% → 53% +26
  5. P35:58Matt Duchene Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (6), Mikko Rantanen (11)EDM 3 – 4 DAL · DAL 53% → 79% +27

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Stars 55%

LeanHit
EDM 45%DAL 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
DAL 55%
ML EDM +115 / DAL -135
Pre-line forecast
DAL 51%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DAL 54%
Ratings vs. market
−1.3 pts
DAL: Elo 54.0%, market 55.3%
Fair odds
DAL -124
EDM +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 3.1 – 3.4 DAL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMDALWhy
Team rating15691562Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+1+1EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsDAL +28 EloDAL 54.0%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 50.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDAL 50.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDAL 55.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatDAL
11th of 323.2Goals scored3.43rd of 32
14th of 322.9Goals allowed2.77th of 32
11th of 32+0.3Margin+0.65th of 32
3rd of 3254.3%Shot share49.4%18th of 32
19th of 3289.7%Save percentage91.1%4th of 32
3rd of 327–3Last 103–725th of 32
4th of 3223–18Road vs home28–126th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersStars
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMDAL
Puck line37–5643–52
Last 107–34–6
Favorite22–5132–42
Underdog15–511–10
Overs–unders42–5142–53
Overs–unders, last 106–44–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 6–6 DAL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.