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Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast

FinalDAL leads series 3-2

Away

Stars

50-26-6

0–4

at

Home

Jets

56-22-4

DAL 45%WPG 55%

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Canada Life Centre · TNT, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.

WPG favored DAL favored4 scoring plays
P1P2P3WPG50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Stars

    Scoring summary

    • P319:15Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (3), Vladislav Namestnikov (3)0–4
    • P312:07Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (1), Neal Pionk (6)0–3
    • P32:20Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (11), Mark Scheifele (6)0–2
    • P26:17Mark Scheifele Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (10), Neal Pionk (5)0–1

    Turning points

    The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P26:17Mark Scheifele Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (10), Neal Pionk (5)DAL 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 54% → 72% +18
    2. P32:20Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (11), Mark Scheifele (6)DAL 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 77% → 92% +15
    3. P312:07Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (1), Neal Pionk (6)DAL 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 98% → >99% +2
    4. P319:15Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (3), Vladislav Namestnikov (3)DAL 0 – 4 WPG · WPG 100% → 100% +0

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Jets 55%

    LeanHit
    DAL 45%WPG 55%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

    Market
    WPG 55%
    ML DAL +115 / WPG -135
    Pre-line forecast
    WPG 54%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    WPG 56%
    Ratings vs. market
    +0.6 pts
    WPG: Elo 55.9%, market 55.3%
    Fair odds
    WPG -124
    DAL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    DAL 2.6 – 2.9 WPG
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorDALWPGWhy
    Team rating15641572Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies0−1DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsWPG +41 EloWPG 55.9%
    Market-implied ratingsWPG 53.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastWPG 53.7%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastWPG 55.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets compared, with each team's league rank
    DALStatWPG
    3rd of 323.4Goals scored3.43rd of 32
    7th of 322.7Goals allowed2.31st of 32
    5th of 32+0.6Margin+1.01st of 32
    18th of 3249.4%Shot share50.9%8th of 32
    4th of 3291.1%Save percentage92.2%1st of 32
    25th of 323–7Last 107–33rd of 32
    7th of 3222–18Road vs home30–113rd of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    StarsJets
    1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonDALWPG
    Puck line43–5045–48
    Last 106–43–7
    Favorite32–4132–37
    Underdog11–913–11
    Overs–unders42–5142–51
    Overs–unders, last 105–56–4

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    DAL 7–5 WPG in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.