Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mikko RantanenGoals3
- Evgenii DadonovAssists1
- Mikko RantanenPoints3
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Haydn FleuryAssists1
- Nino NiederreiterPoints1
Scoring summary
- P217:35Mark Scheifele Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (1)3–2
- P216:38Mikko Rantanen Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (4), Roope Hintz (4)3–1
- P214:21Mikko Rantanen Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (4), Ilya Lyubushkin (3)2–1
- P28:43Mikko Rantanen Goal (6) Poke, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (2), Sam Steel (3)1–1
- P23:30Nino Niederreiter Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Mason Appleton (7), Haydn Fleury (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:30Nino Niederreiter Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Mason Appleton (7), Haydn Fleury (1)DAL 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 50% → 68% +18WPG 50% → 68%+18 pts
- P28:43Mikko Rantanen Goal (6) Poke, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (2), Sam Steel (3)DAL 1 – 1 WPG · DAL 31% → 50% +19DAL 31% → 50%+19 pts
- P214:21Mikko Rantanen Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (4), Ilya Lyubushkin (3)DAL 2 – 1 WPG · DAL 50% → 71% +21DAL 50% → 71%+21 pts
- P216:38Mikko Rantanen Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (4), Roope Hintz (4)DAL 3 – 1 WPG · DAL 72% → 88% +16DAL 72% → 88%+16 pts
- P217:35Mark Scheifele Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (1)DAL 3 – 2 WPG · WPG 12% → 28% +16WPG 12% → 28%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 50%
- ML DAL -110 / WPG -110
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.1 pts
- WPG: Elo 58.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- WPG -100
- DAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.8 – 2.8 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −1 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +57 Elo | WPG 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 62.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.43rd of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +1.01st of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 50.9%8th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 92.2%1st of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3222–18 | Road vs home | 30–113rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–48 | 43–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 30–40 | 31–37 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 41–48 | 41–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–4 WPG in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.