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Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast

FinalSeries tied 3-3

Away

Stars

50-26-6

4–7

at

Home

Avalanche

49-29-4

DAL 36%COL 64%

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Ball Arena · TBS, HBO Max, Victory+, Altitude Sports

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.

COL favored DAL favored11 scoring plays
P1P2P3COL50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • P319:03Cale Makar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (4)4–7
  • P318:44Josh Manson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (3)4–6
  • P39:04Nathan MacKinnon Goal (6) Backhand, assists: none4–5
  • P36:02Valeri Nichushkin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (3), Brock Nelson (4)4–4
  • P218:35Mikko Rantanen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (3), Cody Ceci (3)4–3
  • P27:51Roope Hintz Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (6)3–3
  • P24:34Martin Necas Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (4), Devon Toews (3)2–3
  • P23:41Mikael Granlund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (2), Mikko Rantanen (5)2–2
  • P21:18Roope Hintz Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (4), Wyatt Johnston (4)1–2
  • P118:40Artturi Lehkonen Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (3), Martin Necas (4)0–2
  • P16:29Valeri Nichushkin Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brock Nelson (3), Gabriel Landeskog (2)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P24:34Martin Necas Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (4), Devon Toews (3)DAL 2 – 3 COL · COL 61% → 78% +16
  2. P27:51Roope Hintz Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (6)DAL 3 – 3 COL · DAL 22% → 39% +17
  3. P218:35Mikko Rantanen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (3), Cody Ceci (3)DAL 4 – 3 COL · DAL 41% → 65% +24
  4. P36:02Valeri Nichushkin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (3), Brock Nelson (4)DAL 4 – 4 COL · COL 28% → 57% +29
  5. P39:04Nathan MacKinnon Goal (6) Backhand, assists: noneDAL 4 – 5 COL · COL 56% → 84% +28

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Avalanche 64%

SolidHit
DAL 36%COL 64%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

Market
COL 64%
ML DAL +170 / COL -205
Pre-line forecast
COL 63%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
COL 56%
Ratings vs. market
−8.8 pts
COL: Elo 55.7%, market 64.5%
Fair odds
COL -181
DAL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DAL 2.8 – 3.7 COL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALCOLWhy
Team rating15581563Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−1−1DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCOL +40 EloCOL 55.7%
Market-implied ratingsCOL 65.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCOL 63.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCOL 64.5%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatCOL
3rd of 323.4Goals scored3.43rd of 32
7th of 322.7Goals allowed2.912th of 32
5th of 32+0.6Margin+0.57th of 32
18th of 3249.4%Shot share53.5%5th of 32
4th of 3291.1%Save percentage90.0%16th of 32
25th of 323–7Last 105–514th of 32
7th of 3222–18Road vs home26–1510th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

StarsAvalanche
1500155016001650NovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDALCOL
Puck line40–4738–49
Last 103–74–6
Favorite30–4030–43
Underdog10–78–6
Overs–unders39–4842–45
Overs–unders, last 105–54–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 9–9 COL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 18.