Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jamie BennGoals1
- Mason MarchmentAssists1
- Jamie BennPoints1
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals1
- Samuel GirardAssists1
- Valeri NichushkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT5:31Tyler Seguin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (2), Mikko Rantanen (1)2–1
- P39:18Jamie Benn Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (2), Mikael Granlund (1)1–1
- P18:09Valeri Nichushkin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (2), Sam Malinski (1)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:09Valeri Nichushkin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (2), Sam Malinski (1)DAL 0 – 1 COL · COL 62% → 76% +14COL 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P39:18Jamie Benn Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (2), Mikael Granlund (1)DAL 1 – 1 COL · DAL 16% → 44% +29DAL 16% → 44%+29 pts
- OT5:31Tyler Seguin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (2), Mikko Rantanen (1)DAL 2 – 1 COL · DAL 46% → 100% +54DAL 46% → 100%+54 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 63%
- ML DAL +160 / COL -190
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- COL: Elo 56.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- COL -170
- DAL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 3.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −2 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +47 Elo | COL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 62.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.43rd of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.57th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 53.5%5th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 90.0%16th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 7th of 3222–18 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–46 | 37–47 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–40 | 29–41 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 38–46 | 41–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 7–8 COL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.
- Apr 21COL 3 @ DAL 4PlayoffsPicked COL 55%Miss
- Apr 19COL 5 @ DAL 1PlayoffsPicked COL 60%Hit
- Mar 16DAL 3 @ COL 4Picked COL 54%Hit
- Jan 18DAL 3 @ COL 6Picked COL 54%Hit
- Nov 29COL 3 @ DAL 5Picked DAL 55%Hit
- May 17DAL 2 @ COL 1PlayoffsPicked COL 55%Miss
- May 15COL 5 @ DAL 3PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Miss
- May 13DAL 5 @ COL 1PlayoffsPicked COL 55%Miss