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Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast

FinalSeries tied 2-2

Away

Stars

50-26-6

0–4

at

Home

Avalanche

49-29-4

DAL 36%COL 64%

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Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.

COL favored DAL favored4 scoring plays
P1P2P3COL50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Stars

    Scoring summary

    • P310:46Samuel Girard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (2), Gabriel Landeskog (1)0–4
    • P213:10Gabriel Landeskog Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (1)0–3
    • P119:36Nathan MacKinnon Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Devon Toews (1), Jonathan Drouin (3)0–2
    • P112:39Logan O'Connor Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1

    Turning points

    The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P112:39Logan O'Connor Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDAL 0 – 1 COL · COL 63% → 77% +14
    2. P119:36Nathan MacKinnon Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Devon Toews (1), Jonathan Drouin (3)DAL 0 – 2 COL · COL 77% → 88% +11
    3. P213:10Gabriel Landeskog Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (1)DAL 0 – 3 COL · COL 91% → 97% +6
    4. P310:46Samuel Girard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (2), Gabriel Landeskog (1)DAL 0 – 4 COL · COL >99% → >99% +0

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Avalanche 64%

    SolidHit
    DAL 36%COL 64%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

    Market
    COL 64%
    ML DAL +170 / COL -200
    Pre-line forecast
    COL 62%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    COL 56%
    Ratings vs. market
    −8.5 pts
    COL: Elo 55.8%, market 64.3%
    Fair odds
    COL -180
    DAL +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    DAL 2.8 – 3.7 COL
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorDALCOLWhy
    Team rating15581563Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies−1−1DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsCOL +41 EloCOL 55.8%
    Market-implied ratingsCOL 63.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastCOL 62.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastCOL 64.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche compared, with each team's league rank
    DALStatCOL
    3rd of 323.4Goals scored3.43rd of 32
    7th of 322.7Goals allowed2.912th of 32
    5th of 32+0.6Margin+0.57th of 32
    18th of 3249.4%Shot share53.5%5th of 32
    4th of 3291.1%Save percentage90.0%16th of 32
    25th of 323–7Last 105–514th of 32
    7th of 3222–18Road vs home26–1510th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    StarsAvalanche
    1500155016001650NovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonDALCOL
    Puck line39–4637–48
    Last 102–84–6
    Favorite30–4029–42
    Underdog9–68–6
    Overs–unders38–4741–44
    Overs–unders, last 105–54–6

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    DAL 8–8 COL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 16.