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Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast

FinalDAL leads series 3-2

Away

Avalanche

49-29-4

2–6

at

Home

Stars

50-26-6

COL 56%DAL 44%

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American Airlines Center · ESPN, Altitude Sports, Victory+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.

DAL favored COL favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3DAL50%COL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Avalanche

Scoring summary

  • P317:55Roope Hintz Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (3)2–6
  • P218:32Mason Marchment Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Petrovic (1), Tyler Seguin (1)2–5
  • P216:48Wyatt Johnston Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (1), Mikko Rantanen (2)2–4
  • P214:38Nathan MacKinnon Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (2), Martin Necas (3)2–3
  • P212:11Artturi Lehkonen Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Martin Necas (2), Nathan MacKinnon (2)1–3
  • P21:12Mikko Rantanen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (1), Ilya Lyubushkin (1)0–3
  • P119:15Thomas Harley Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (3)0–2
  • P10:09Wyatt Johnston Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (1), Cody Ceci (2)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P10:09Wyatt Johnston Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (1), Cody Ceci (2)COL 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 44% → 58% +14
  2. P119:15Thomas Harley Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (3)COL 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 62% → 78% +15
  3. P21:12Mikko Rantanen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (1), Ilya Lyubushkin (1)COL 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 78% → 89% +11
  4. P214:38Nathan MacKinnon Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (2), Martin Necas (3)COL 2 – 3 DAL · COL 15% → 32% +17
  5. P216:48Wyatt Johnston Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (1), Mikko Rantanen (2)COL 2 – 4 DAL · DAL 69% → 86% +17

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Avalanche 56%

LeanMiss
COL 56%DAL 44%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
COL 56%
ML COL -140 / DAL +120
Pre-line forecast
COL 53%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
COL 48%
Ratings vs. market
−8.7 pts
COL: Elo 47.5%, market 56.2%
Fair odds
COL -128
DAL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
COL 3.4 – 3.1 DAL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCOLDALWhy
Team rating15681553Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+2−2COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsDAL +17 EloDAL 52.5%
Market-implied ratingsCOL 54.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCOL 52.9%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCOL 56.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars compared, with each team's league rank
COLStatDAL
3rd of 323.4Goals scored3.43rd of 32
12th of 322.9Goals allowed2.77th of 32
7th of 32+0.5Margin+0.65th of 32
5th of 3253.5%Shot share49.4%18th of 32
16th of 3290.0%Save percentage91.1%4th of 32
14th of 325–5Last 103–725th of 32
4th of 3223–18Road vs home28–126th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

AvalancheStars
1500155016001650NovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCOLDAL
Puck line38–4839–47
Last 105–52–8
Favorite30–4230–40
Underdog8–69–7
Overs–unders41–4538–48
Overs–unders, last 104–64–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

COL 9–8 DAL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.