Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Nikolaj EhlersGoals1
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints1
Stars- Mikko RantanenAssists1
- Matt DuchenePoints1
Scoring summary
- P37:23Mikael Granlund Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (1), Matt Duchene (5)1–3
- P217:52Mikael Granlund Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (10)1–2
- P21:02Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (9), Josh Morrissey (6)1–1
- P18:36Mikael Granlund Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (6), Jason Robertson (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:36Mikael Granlund Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (6), Jason Robertson (1)WPG 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 57% → 72% +15DAL 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P21:02Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (9), Josh Morrissey (6)WPG 1 – 1 DAL · WPG 27% → 44% +17WPG 27% → 44%+17 pts
- P217:52Mikael Granlund Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (10)WPG 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 55% → 77% +22DAL 55% → 77%+22 pts
- P37:23Mikael Granlund Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (1), Matt Duchene (5)WPG 1 – 3 DAL · DAL 81% → 95% +14DAL 81% → 95%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 58%
- ML WPG +130 / DAL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- DAL: Elo 52.9%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- DAL -138
- WPG +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.5 – 3.0 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −1 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +20 Elo | DAL 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.43rd of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.0 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 8th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 49.4%18th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 91.1%4th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 1st of 3226–15 | Road vs home | 28–126th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 45–47 | 42–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–37 | 31–41 |
| Underdog | 13–10 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 42–50 | 42–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 5–6 DAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
- May 11WPG 2 @ DAL 5PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Hit
- May 9DAL 0 @ WPG 4PlayoffsPicked WPG 57%Hit
- May 7DAL 3 @ WPG 2PlayoffsPicked WPG 50%Miss
- Apr 10WPG 4 @ DAL 0Picked DAL 52%Miss
- Mar 14DAL 1 @ WPG 4Picked WPG 54%Hit
- Dec 1WPG 1 @ DAL 3Picked DAL 58%Hit
- Nov 9DAL 1 @ WPG 4Picked WPG 51%Hit
- Apr 11WPG 3 @ DAL 0Picked DAL 56%Miss