Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars
Jets- Nikolaj EhlersGoals2
- Dylan DeMeloAssists2
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:20Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (3)0–4
- P211:02Adam Lowry Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (2), Nino Niederreiter (2)0–3
- P17:07Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Haydn Fleury (2), Mark Scheifele (5)0–2
- P13:35Gabriel Vilardi Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (2), Josh Morrissey (4)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:35Gabriel Vilardi Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (2), Josh Morrissey (4)DAL 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 57% → 71% +14WPG 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P17:07Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Haydn Fleury (2), Mark Scheifele (5)DAL 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 71% → 83% +12WPG 71% → 83%+12 pts
- P211:02Adam Lowry Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (2), Nino Niederreiter (2)DAL 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 88% → 96% +8WPG 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P316:20Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (3)DAL 0 – 4 WPG · WPG >99% → >99% +0WPG >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 57%
- ML DAL +125 / WPG -145
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- WPG: Elo 57.1%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- WPG -133
- DAL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.5 – 3.0 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −2 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +50 Elo | WPG 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.43rd of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +1.01st of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 50.9%8th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 92.2%1st of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3222–18 | Road vs home | 30–113rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–49 | 44–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 30–41 | 31–37 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 41–49 | 41–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 5–4 WPG in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.