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Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalEDM leads series 2-1

Away

Golden Knights

50-22-10

4–3

at

Home

Oilers

48-29-5

VGK 48%EDM 52%

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Rogers Place · TNT, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored VGK favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3EDM50%VGK

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Golden Knights
Oilers

Scoring summary

  • P319:59Reilly Smith Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (3), Brayden McNabb (4)4–3
  • P316:58Connor McDavid Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (7), Leon Draisaitl (10)3–3
  • P217:05William Karlsson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (4), Alex Pietrangelo (4)3–2
  • P116:11Reilly Smith Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jack Eichel (9), Zach Whitecloud (2)2–2
  • P115:17Nicolas Roy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Hague (2), Keegan Kolesar (1)1–2
  • P111:12Corey Perry Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (6), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (6)0–2
  • P17:19Corey Perry Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (13), Leon Draisaitl (9)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P17:19Corey Perry Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (13), Leon Draisaitl (9)VGK 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 52% → 67% +15
  2. P116:11Reilly Smith Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jack Eichel (9), Zach Whitecloud (2)VGK 2 – 2 EDM · VGK 32% → 48% +16
  3. P217:05William Karlsson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (4), Alex Pietrangelo (4)VGK 3 – 2 EDM · VGK 49% → 71% +22
  4. P316:58Connor McDavid Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (7), Leon Draisaitl (10)VGK 3 – 3 EDM · EDM 5% → 50% +45
  5. P319:59Reilly Smith Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (3), Brayden McNabb (4)VGK 4 – 3 EDM · VGK 50% → 100% +50

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 52%

Toss-upMiss
VGK 48%EDM 52%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
EDM 52%
ML VGK +100 / EDM -120
Pre-line forecast
EDM 53%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 57%
Ratings vs. market
+4.8 pts
EDM: Elo 57.0%, market 52.2%
Fair odds
EDM -109
VGK +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
VGK 3.2 – 3.3 EDM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorVGKEDMWhy
Team rating15451566Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+2−4VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +49 EloEDM 57.0%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 52.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 53.1%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 52.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
VGKStatEDM
6th of 323.4Goals scored3.211th of 32
3rd of 322.7Goals allowed2.914th of 32
4th of 32+0.7Margin+0.311th of 32
4th of 3253.7%Shot share54.3%3rd of 32
12th of 3290.3%Save percentage89.7%19th of 32
9th of 326–4Last 107–33rd of 32
9th of 3221–20Road vs home25–1613th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Golden KnightsOilers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonVGKEDM
Puck line48–4235–55
Last 103–77–3
Favorite35–4021–50
Underdog13–214–5
Overs–unders42–4841–49
Overs–unders, last 106–46–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

VGK 3–6 EDM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.