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Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalEDM wins series 4-2

Away

Kings

48-25-9

4–6

at

Home

Oilers

48-29-5

LA 41%EDM 59%

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Rogers Place · ESPN, FanDuel SN West

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored LA favored10 scoring plays
P1P2P3EDM50%LA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Kings
Oilers

Scoring summary

  • P319:58Connor Brown Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none4–6
  • P319:05Anze Kopitar Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Drew Doughty (3), Alex Laferriere (3)4–5
  • P218:01Jordan Spence Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (4), Samuel Helenius (1)3–5
  • P216:35Trent Frederic Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Connor Brown (2), Brett Kulak (2)2–5
  • P214:59Darnell Nurse Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (4), Mattias Janmark (1)2–4
  • P112:49Zach Hyman Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Darnell Nurse (1), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2)2–3
  • P15:55Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (9), Zach Hyman (3)2–2
  • P13:37Brandt Clarke Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (6)2–1
  • P13:04Adam Henrique Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (1), Trent Frederic (2)1–1
  • P11:19Quinton Byfield Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (3), Alex Laferriere (2)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P11:19Quinton Byfield Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (3), Alex Laferriere (2)LA 1 – 0 EDM · LA 41% → 56% +15
  2. P13:04Adam Henrique Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (1), Trent Frederic (2)LA 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 44% → 59% +15
  3. P13:37Brandt Clarke Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (6)LA 2 – 1 EDM · LA 41% → 56% +15
  4. P15:55Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (9), Zach Hyman (3)LA 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 43% → 59% +15
  5. P112:49Zach Hyman Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Darnell Nurse (1), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2)LA 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 58% → 73% +15

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 59%

LeanHit
LA 41%EDM 59%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
EDM 59%
ML LA +135 / EDM -160
Pre-line forecast
EDM 57%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 57%
Ratings vs. market
−2.0 pts
EDM: Elo 57.2%, market 59.1%
Fair odds
EDM -145
LA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
LA 3.0 – 3.5 EDM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorLAEDMWhy
Team rating15421556Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−1+1LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +50 EloEDM 57.2%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 57.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 57.1%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 59.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
LAStatEDM
15th of 323.0Goals scored3.211th of 32
2nd of 322.5Goals allowed2.914th of 32
6th of 32+0.5Margin+0.311th of 32
6th of 3252.4%Shot share54.3%3rd of 32
5th of 3290.8%Save percentage89.7%19th of 32
2nd of 328–2Last 107–33rd of 32
18th of 3217–24Road vs home25–1613th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

KingsOilers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonLAEDM
Puck line43–4432–55
Last 105–55–5
Favorite24–3220–50
Underdog19–1212–5
Overs–unders38–4939–48
Overs–unders, last 108–25–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

LA 7–11 EDM in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.