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Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalLA leads series 2-1

Away

Kings

48-25-9

4–7

at

Home

Oilers

48-29-5

LA 44%EDM 56%

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Rogers Place · TNT, truTV, HBO Max, FanDuel SN West

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored LA favored11 scoring plays
P1P2P3EDM50%LA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Kings
Oilers

Scoring summary

  • P319:52Connor Brown Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (2)4–7
  • P318:20Connor McDavid Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (2)4–6
  • P313:28Evan Bouchard Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Leon Draisaitl (3)4–5
  • P313:18Evander Kane Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (5), Jake Walman (1)4–4
  • P217:28Trevor Moore Goal (1) Poke, assists: Joel Edmundson (1), Phillip Danault (3)4–3
  • P217:19Connor Brown Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Evander Kane (1), Adam Henrique (1)3–3
  • P215:07Drew Doughty Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (2), Phillip Danault (2)3–2
  • P25:43Kevin Fiala Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (5), Anze Kopitar (6)2–2
  • P117:18Adrian Kempe Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (2), Anze Kopitar (5)1–2
  • P18:43Evan Bouchard Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (2)0–2
  • P12:49Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (1), Connor McDavid (4)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P215:07Drew Doughty Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (2), Phillip Danault (2)LA 3 – 2 EDM · LA 46% → 68% +22
  2. P217:19Connor Brown Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Evander Kane (1), Adam Henrique (1)LA 3 – 3 EDM · EDM 31% → 54% +23
  3. P217:28Trevor Moore Goal (1) Poke, assists: Joel Edmundson (1), Phillip Danault (3)LA 4 – 3 EDM · LA 46% → 69% +23
  4. P313:18Evander Kane Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (5), Jake Walman (1)LA 4 – 4 EDM · EDM 15% → 52% +37
  5. P313:28Evan Bouchard Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Leon Draisaitl (3)LA 4 – 5 EDM · EDM 52% → 88% +36

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 56%

LeanHit
LA 44%EDM 56%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
EDM 56%
ML LA +120 / EDM -140
Pre-line forecast
EDM 51%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 53%
Ratings vs. market
−3.0 pts
EDM: Elo 53.2%, market 56.2%
Fair odds
EDM -128
LA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
LA 3.1 – 3.4 EDM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorLAEDMWhy
Team rating15531545Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+5+1LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +22 EloEDM 53.2%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 50.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 50.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 56.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
LAStatEDM
15th of 323.0Goals scored3.211th of 32
2nd of 322.5Goals allowed2.914th of 32
6th of 32+0.5Margin+0.311th of 32
6th of 3252.4%Shot share54.3%3rd of 32
5th of 3290.8%Save percentage89.7%19th of 32
2nd of 328–2Last 107–33rd of 32
18th of 3217–24Road vs home25–1613th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

KingsOilers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonLAEDM
Puck line42–4230–54
Last 106–43–7
Favorite24–3119–49
Underdog18–1111–5
Overs–unders36–4837–47
Overs–unders, last 107–33–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

LA 7–8 EDM in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.