Calgary Flames at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals2
- Dryden HuntAssists2
- Nazem KadriPoints2
Kings- Taylor WardGoals1
- Jordan SpenceAssists1
- Taylor WardPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:49Taylor Ward Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (24), Brandt Clarke (28)5–1
- P311:35Mikael Backlund Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (23)5–0
- P38:24Zayne Parekh Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (17)4–0
- P37:28Nazem Kadri Goal (35) Slap Shot, assists: Dryden Hunt (3), Yegor Sharangovich (15)3–0
- P36:05Sam Morton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Lomberg (10), Dryden Hunt (2)2–0
- P22:15Nazem Kadri Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Klapka (4), Brayden Pachal (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:15Nazem Kadri Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Klapka (4), Brayden Pachal (9)CGY 1 – 0 LA · CGY 40% → 58% +18CGY 40% → 58%+18 pts
- P36:05Sam Morton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Lomberg (10), Dryden Hunt (2)CGY 2 – 0 LA · CGY 73% → 91% +19CGY 73% → 91%+19 pts
- P37:28Nazem Kadri Goal (35) Slap Shot, assists: Dryden Hunt (3), Yegor Sharangovich (15)CGY 3 – 0 LA · CGY 93% → 99% +6CGY 93% → 99%+6 pts
- P38:24Zayne Parekh Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (17)CGY 4 – 0 LA · CGY >99% → >99% +1CGY >99% → >99%+1 pts
- P311:35Mikael Backlund Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (23)CGY 5 – 0 LA · CGY >99% → >99% +0CGY >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 62%
- ML CGY +155 / LA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- LA: Elo 65.3%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -166
- CGY +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.4 – 3.1 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −6 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +110 Elo | LA 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 66.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 16th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 52.4%6th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.9%5th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3217–23 | Road vs home | 31–91st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–40 | 41–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 23–29 |
| Underdog | 30–22 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 34–47 | 33–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 4–2 LA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.