Los Angeles Kings at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Samuel HeleniusGoals2
- Vladislav GavrikovAssists2
- Samuel HeleniusPoints2
Kraken- Tye KartyeGoals1
- Jamie OleksiakAssists1
- Jaden SchwartzPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:30Eeli Tolvanen Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Shane Wright (25), Vince Dunn (28)6–5
- P313:34Matty Beniers Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Eberle (17), Jared McCann (39)6–4
- P35:12Jaden Schwartz Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (13), Ville Ottavainen (1)6–3
- P32:38Samuel Helenius Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Moverare (7), Trevor Lewis (6)6–2
- P31:41Adrian Kempe Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (16), Andrei Kuzmenko (26)5–2
- P217:17Alex Laferriere Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (25), Jeff Malott (1)4–2
- P216:05Warren Foegele Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Phillip Danault (35), Vladislav Gavrikov (25)3–2
- P213:24Brandon Montour Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (27), Kaapo Kakko (30)2–2
- P25:26Tye Kartye Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P116:23Alex Turcotte Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (38), Kevin Fiala (24)2–0
- P115:14Samuel Helenius Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (24), Jordan Spence (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:14Samuel Helenius Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (24), Jordan Spence (23)LA 1 – 0 SEA · LA 50% → 66% +16LA 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P25:26Tye Kartye Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneLA 2 – 1 SEA · SEA 17% → 32% +15SEA 17% → 32%+15 pts
- P213:24Brandon Montour Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (27), Kaapo Kakko (30)LA 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 29% → 50% +21SEA 29% → 50%+21 pts
- P216:05Warren Foegele Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Phillip Danault (35), Vladislav Gavrikov (25)LA 3 – 2 SEA · LA 50% → 72% +22LA 50% → 72%+22 pts
- P217:17Alex Laferriere Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (25), Jeff Malott (1)LA 4 – 2 SEA · LA 72% → 88% +16LA 72% → 88%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 50%
- ML LA -110 / SEA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 49.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -100
- LA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.8 – 2.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +5 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +5 Elo | LA 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.6% | Shot share | 48.8%24th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.8%18th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3216–24 | Road vs home | 18–2227th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–40 | 43–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–29 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 17–11 | 33–24 |
| Overs–unders | 32–48 | 40–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 3–3 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.