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Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalNHL Net, FanDuel SN West

Away

Kings

47-24-9

5–0

at

Home

Oilers

47-29-5

LA 63%EDM 37%

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Rogers Place · NHL Net, FanDuel SN West

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored LA favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3EDM50%LA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Kings
Oilers

    Scoring summary

    • P38:13Adrian Kempe Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (46), Mikey Anderson (18)5–0
    • P27:43Kevin Fiala Goal (35) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (37), Anze Kopitar (45)4–0
    • P118:45Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (22), Warren Foegele (22)3–0
    • P19:26Quinton Byfield Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (36), Kevin Fiala (23)2–0
    • P12:55Warren Foegele Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (34), Trevor Moore (21)1–0

    Turning points

    The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P12:55Warren Foegele Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (34), Trevor Moore (21)LA 1 – 0 EDM · LA 63% → 76% +13
    2. P19:26Quinton Byfield Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (36), Kevin Fiala (23)LA 2 – 0 EDM · LA 76% → 86% +11
    3. P118:45Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (22), Warren Foegele (22)LA 3 – 0 EDM · LA 88% → 94% +7
    4. P27:43Kevin Fiala Goal (35) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (37), Anze Kopitar (45)LA 4 – 0 EDM · LA 96% → 99% +3
    5. P38:13Adrian Kempe Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (46), Mikey Anderson (18)LA 5 – 0 EDM · LA >99% → >99% +0

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Kings 63%

    SolidHit
    LA 63%EDM 37%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

    Market
    LA 63%
    ML LA -190 / EDM +160
    Pre-line forecast
    LA 56%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    LA 48%
    Ratings vs. market
    −14.7 pts
    LA: Elo 48.3%, market 63.0%
    Fair odds
    LA -170
    EDM +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    LA 3.1 – 2.4 EDM
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorLAEDMWhy
    Team rating15451555Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Rest—−30EDM on the second night of a back-to-back
    Starting goalies+6+3LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsEDM +12 EloEDM 51.7%
    Market-implied ratingsLA 58.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastLA 56.3%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastLA 63.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
    LAStatEDM
    15th of 323.0Goals scored3.211th of 32
    2nd of 322.5Goals allowed2.914th of 32
    6th of 32+0.5Margin+0.311th of 32
    6th of 3252.4%Shot share54.4%3rd of 32
    5th of 3290.9%Save percentage89.7%20th of 32
    2nd of 327–3Last 106–47th of 32
    23rd of 3215–24Road vs home25–1512th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    KingsOilers
    1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonLAEDM
    Puck line39–4028–52
    Last 106–43–7
    Favorite22–2918–49
    Underdog17–1110–3
    Overs–unders32–4735–45
    Overs–unders, last 104–63–7

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    LA 4–8 EDM in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.