Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Ty EmbersonGoals1
- Ty EmbersonAssists1
- Ty EmbersonPoints2
SharksScoring summary
- P317:23Corey Perry Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (8)3–0
- P210:17Max Jones Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (15), Ty Emberson (11)2–0
- P18:20Ty Emberson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (74), Jeff Skinner (13)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:20Ty Emberson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (74), Jeff Skinner (13)EDM 1 – 0 SJ · EDM 66% → 79% +13EDM 66% → 79%+13 pts
- P210:17Max Jones Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (15), Ty Emberson (11)EDM 2 – 0 SJ · EDM 79% → 91% +12EDM 79% → 91%+12 pts
- P317:23Corey Perry Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (8)EDM 3 – 0 SJ · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 67%
- ML EDM -225 / SJ +190
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- EDM: Elo 71.7%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- EDM -201
- SJ +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.7 – 2.8 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1356 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −6 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +162 Elo | EDM 71.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 68.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 69.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.632nd of 32 |
| 14th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.932nd of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −1.332nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.2% | Shot share | 45.9%31st of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 88.7%31st of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 0–1032nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3222–18 | Road vs home | 12–2832nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–53 | 49–32 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–49 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 48–32 |
| Overs–unders | 35–46 | 39–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 5–1 SJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.