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Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast

FinalLA leads series 1-0

Away

Oilers

48-29-5

5–6

at

Home

Kings

48-25-9

EDM 42%LA 58%

You didn't pick this one.

crypto.com Arena · ESPN2, FanDuel SN West

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.

LA favored EDM favored11 scoring plays
P1P2P3LA50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Oilers

Scoring summary

  • P319:18Phillip Danault Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (1), Vladislav Gavrikov (1)5–6
  • P318:32Connor McDavid Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (1), Evan Bouchard (3)5–5
  • P317:56Zach Hyman Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (3), Corey Perry (1)4–5
  • P37:43Corey Perry Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (2), Evan Bouchard (2)3–5
  • P34:59Kevin Fiala Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (2), Andrei Kuzmenko (2)2–5
  • P32:19Mattias Janmark Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (1), Jeff Skinner (1)2–4
  • P219:54Leon Draisaitl Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (1), Evan Bouchard (1)1–4
  • P217:43Phillip Danault Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (1)0–4
  • P214:47Adrian Kempe Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (1), Anze Kopitar (1)0–3
  • P119:27Quinton Byfield Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (1), Mikey Anderson (1)0–2
  • P12:49Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Fiala (1), Adrian Kempe (1)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P12:49Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Fiala (1), Adrian Kempe (1)EDM 0 – 1 LA · LA 58% → 72% +14
  2. P119:27Quinton Byfield Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (1), Mikey Anderson (1)EDM 0 – 2 LA · LA 73% → 85% +13
  3. P214:47Adrian Kempe Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (1), Anze Kopitar (1)EDM 0 – 3 LA · LA 90% → 97% +7
  4. P318:32Connor McDavid Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (1), Evan Bouchard (3)EDM 5 – 5 LA · EDM <1% → 49% +48
  5. P319:18Phillip Danault Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (1), Vladislav Gavrikov (1)EDM 5 – 6 LA · LA 51% → >99% +49

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Kings 58%

LeanHit
EDM 42%LA 58%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
LA 58%
ML EDM +130 / LA -150
Pre-line forecast
LA 64%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LA 55%
Ratings vs. market
−2.6 pts
LA: Elo 55.4%, market 58.0%
Fair odds
LA -138
EDM +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 2.5 – 3.0 LA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMLAWhy
Team rating15521546Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies0+8EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsLA +38 EloLA 55.4%
Market-implied ratingsLA 66.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLA 64.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastLA 58.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatLA
11th of 323.2Goals scored3.015th of 32
14th of 322.9Goals allowed2.52nd of 32
11th of 32+0.3Margin+0.56th of 32
3rd of 3254.3%Shot share52.4%6th of 32
19th of 3289.7%Save percentage90.8%5th of 32
3rd of 327–3Last 108–22nd of 32
4th of 3223–18Road vs home31–101st of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersKings
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMLA
Puck line29–5341–41
Last 103–77–3
Favorite19–4923–30
Underdog10–418–11
Overs–unders35–4734–48
Overs–unders, last 101–96–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 8–5 LA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.