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Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast

FinalLA leads series 2-0

Away

Oilers

48-29-5

2–6

at

Home

Kings

48-25-9

EDM 47%LA 53%

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Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.

LA favored EDM favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3LA50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Kings

Scoring summary

  • P311:09Adrian Kempe Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (3), Anze Kopitar (4)2–6
  • P39:07Anze Kopitar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (2), Adrian Kempe (4)2–5
  • P36:46Adrian Kempe Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (3)2–4
  • P34:05Viktor Arvidsson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brett Kulak (1), Vasily Podkolzin (1)2–3
  • P213:54Leon Draisaitl Goal (2) Deflected, assists: John Klingberg (1)1–3
  • P210:37Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (3), Anze Kopitar (2)0–3
  • P24:14Quinton Byfield Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (2), Warren Foegele (2)0–2
  • P18:44Brandt Clarke Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (1), Phillip Danault (1)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P18:44Brandt Clarke Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (1), Phillip Danault (1)EDM 0 – 1 LA · LA 53% → 68% +15
  2. P24:14Quinton Byfield Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (2), Warren Foegele (2)EDM 0 – 2 LA · LA 70% → 84% +14
  3. P210:37Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (3), Anze Kopitar (2)EDM 0 – 3 LA · LA 86% → 95% +8
  4. P34:05Viktor Arvidsson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brett Kulak (1), Vasily Podkolzin (1)EDM 2 – 3 LA · EDM 7% → 23% +15
  5. P36:46Adrian Kempe Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (3)EDM 2 – 4 LA · LA 79% → 94% +15

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Kings 53%

Toss-upHit
EDM 47%LA 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
LA 53%
ML EDM +105 / LA -125
Pre-line forecast
LA 60%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LA 56%
Ratings vs. market
+2.7 pts
LA: Elo 55.9%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
LA -114
EDM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 2.7 – 2.8 LA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMLAWhy
Team rating15491548Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−2+5EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsLA +41 EloLA 55.9%
Market-implied ratingsLA 61.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLA 60.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastLA 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatLA
11th of 323.2Goals scored3.015th of 32
14th of 322.9Goals allowed2.52nd of 32
11th of 32+0.3Margin+0.56th of 32
3rd of 3254.3%Shot share52.4%6th of 32
19th of 3289.7%Save percentage90.8%5th of 32
3rd of 327–3Last 108–22nd of 32
4th of 3223–18Road vs home31–101st of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersKings
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMLA
Puck line30–5341–42
Last 104–66–4
Favorite19–4923–31
Underdog11–418–11
Overs–unders36–4735–48
Overs–unders, last 102–86–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 8–6 LA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.