Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Evander KaneGoals1
- John KlingbergAssists1
- Evander KanePoints1
Kings- Andrei KuzmenkoGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists1
- Andrei KuzmenkoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:02Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (8), Leon Draisaitl (7)3–1
- P37:12Mattias Janmark Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (1), Vasily Podkolzin (3)2–1
- P26:16Evander Kane Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: John Klingberg (2)1–1
- P23:33Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Anze Kopitar (7), Adrian Kempe (6)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:33Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Anze Kopitar (7), Adrian Kempe (6)EDM 0 – 1 LA · LA 52% → 70% +18LA 52% → 70%+18 pts
- P26:16Evander Kane Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: John Klingberg (2)EDM 1 – 1 LA · EDM 30% → 48% +18EDM 30% → 48%+18 pts
- P37:12Mattias Janmark Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (1), Vasily Podkolzin (3)EDM 2 – 1 LA · EDM 49% → 78% +29EDM 49% → 78%+29 pts
- P319:02Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (8), Leon Draisaitl (7)EDM 3 – 1 LA · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 52%
- ML EDM +100 / LA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- LA: Elo 54.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LA -109
- EDM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.2 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | 0 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +31 Elo | LA 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.015th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.56th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.3% | Shot share | 52.4%6th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.8%5th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3223–18 | Road vs home | 31–101st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–55 | 43–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–50 | 24–31 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 39–47 | 38–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 10–7 LA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 17.
- Apr 27LA 3 @ EDM 4PlayoffsPicked EDM 57%Hit
- Apr 25LA 4 @ EDM 7PlayoffsPicked EDM 56%Hit
- Apr 23EDM 2 @ LA 6PlayoffsPicked LA 53%Hit
- Apr 21EDM 5 @ LA 6PlayoffsPicked LA 58%Hit
- Apr 14LA 5 @ EDM 0Picked LA 63%Hit
- Apr 5EDM 0 @ LA 3Picked LA 66%Hit
- Jan 13LA 0 @ EDM 1Picked EDM 65%Hit
- Dec 28EDM 3 @ LA 4Picked EDM 55%Miss