Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Vasily PodkolzinGoals1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsAssists2
- Vasily PodkolzinPoints2
Golden Knights- Victor OlofssonGoals2
- Victor OlofssonAssists1
- Victor OlofssonPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT15:20Leon Draisaitl Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (12), Corey Perry (2)5–4
- P311:58Alex Pietrangelo Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (3), Victor Olofsson (2)4–4
- P34:32Victor Olofsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (8), Mark Stone (4)4–3
- P31:52Evander Kane Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (4), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (5)4–2
- P218:10William Karlsson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jack Eichel (7), Alex Pietrangelo (3)3–2
- P217:17Darnell Nurse Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (4)3–1
- P215:18Vasily Podkolzin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (3), John Klingberg (3)2–1
- P211:31Jake Walman Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (5), Viktor Arvidsson (2)1–1
- P18:42Victor Olofsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (3), Jack Eichel (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:31Jake Walman Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (5), Viktor Arvidsson (2)EDM 1 – 1 VGK · EDM 27% → 46% +20EDM 27% → 46%+20 pts
- P215:18Vasily Podkolzin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (3), John Klingberg (3)EDM 2 – 1 VGK · EDM 47% → 69% +22EDM 47% → 69%+22 pts
- P31:52Evander Kane Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (4), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (5)EDM 4 – 2 VGK · EDM 72% → 90% +17EDM 72% → 90%+17 pts
- P311:58Alex Pietrangelo Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (3), Victor Olofsson (2)EDM 4 – 4 VGK · VGK 17% → 52% +35VGK 17% → 52%+35 pts
- OT15:20Leon Draisaitl Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (12), Corey Perry (2)EDM 5 – 4 VGK · EDM 48% → 100% +52EDM 48% → 100%+52 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 55%
- ML EDM +115 / VGK -135
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- VGK: Elo 53.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -124
- EDM +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.1 – 3.4 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +4 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +23 Elo | VGK 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.46th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.73rd of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.74th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.3% | Shot share | 53.7%4th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.3%12th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 4th of 3223–18 | Road vs home | 29–124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–55 | 48–41 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–50 | 35–39 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 40–49 | 41–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 5–3 VGK in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.