Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Evan BouchardAssists2
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Golden Knights- William KarlssonAssists1
- William KarlssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:14Connor Brown Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (5)4–2
- P316:58Zach Hyman Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Evander Kane (2), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (3)3–2
- P30:57Leon Draisaitl Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Evan Bouchard (4), Connor McDavid (11)2–2
- P116:26Corey Perry Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (10), Leon Draisaitl (8)1–2
- P19:03Mark Stone Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (5)0–2
- P12:13Mark Stone Goal (3) Deflected, assists: William Karlsson (2), Shea Theodore (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:13Mark Stone Goal (3) Deflected, assists: William Karlsson (2), Shea Theodore (3)EDM 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 55% → 69% +14VGK 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P19:03Mark Stone Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (5)EDM 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 70% → 82% +12VGK 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P116:26Corey Perry Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (10), Leon Draisaitl (8)EDM 1 – 2 VGK · EDM 17% → 29% +13EDM 17% → 29%+13 pts
- P30:57Leon Draisaitl Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Evan Bouchard (4), Connor McDavid (11)EDM 2 – 2 VGK · EDM 24% → 47% +24EDM 24% → 47%+24 pts
- P316:58Zach Hyman Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Evander Kane (2), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (3)EDM 3 – 2 VGK · EDM 49% → 94% +46EDM 49% → 94%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 55%
- ML EDM +115 / VGK -135
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- VGK: Elo 54.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -124
- EDM +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.1 – 3.4 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +6 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +34 Elo | VGK 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 61.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.46th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.73rd of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.74th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.3% | Shot share | 53.7%4th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.3%12th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 4th of 3223–18 | Road vs home | 29–124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–55 | 48–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–50 | 35–38 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 40–48 | 41–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 4–3 VGK in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.