Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalEDM leads series 3-1

Away

Golden Knights

50-22-10

0–3

at

Home

Oilers

48-29-5

VGK 48%EDM 52%

You didn't pick this one.

Rogers Place · TNT, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored VGK favored3 scoring plays
P1P2P3EDM50%VGK

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Golden Knights
    Oilers

    Scoring summary

    • P27:38Evander Kane Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (14), Evan Bouchard (8)0–3
    • P113:03Adam Henrique Goal (3) Between Legs, assists: Zach Hyman (5), Evander Kane (3)0–2
    • P11:27Adam Henrique Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (3)0–1

    Turning points

    The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P11:27Adam Henrique Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (3)VGK 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 52% → 66% +14
    2. P113:03Adam Henrique Goal (3) Between Legs, assists: Zach Hyman (5), Evander Kane (3)VGK 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 68% → 81% +13
    3. P27:38Evander Kane Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (14), Evan Bouchard (8)VGK 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 85% → 94% +9

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Oilers 52%

    Toss-upHit
    VGK 48%EDM 52%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

    Market
    EDM 52%
    ML VGK +100 / EDM -120
    Pre-line forecast
    EDM 53%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    EDM 56%
    Ratings vs. market
    +4.0 pts
    EDM: Elo 56.2%, market 52.2%
    Fair odds
    EDM -109
    VGK +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    VGK 3.2 – 3.3 EDM
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorVGKEDMWhy
    Team rating15481563Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies+2−5VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsEDM +43 EloEDM 56.2%
    Market-implied ratingsEDM 52.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastEDM 53.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastEDM 52.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
    VGKStatEDM
    6th of 323.4Goals scored3.211th of 32
    3rd of 322.7Goals allowed2.914th of 32
    4th of 32+0.7Margin+0.311th of 32
    4th of 3253.7%Shot share54.3%3rd of 32
    12th of 3290.3%Save percentage89.7%19th of 32
    9th of 326–4Last 107–33rd of 32
    9th of 3221–20Road vs home25–1613th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    Golden KnightsOilers
    1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonVGKEDM
    Puck line49–4235–56
    Last 103–77–3
    Favorite35–4021–51
    Underdog14–214–5
    Overs–unders43–4842–49
    Overs–unders, last 106–47–3

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    VGK 4–6 EDM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.