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Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast

Final/OTEDM wins series 4-1

Away

Oilers

48-29-5

1–0

at

Home

Golden Knights

50-22-10

EDM 49%VGK 51%

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T-Mobile Arena · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors VGK.

VGK75%50%75%EDMStartP1P2P3Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Golden Knights

    Scoring summary

    • OT7:19Kasperi Kapanen Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (11), Darnell Nurse (2)1–0

    Turning points

    The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. OT7:19Kasperi Kapanen Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (11), Darnell Nurse (2)EDM 1 – 0 VGK · EDM 50% → 100% +50

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Golden Knights 51%

    Toss-upMiss
    EDM 49%VGK 51%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

    Market
    VGK 51%
    ML EDM -105 / VGK -115
    Pre-line forecast
    VGK 57%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    VGK 52%
    Ratings vs. market
    +1.2 pts
    VGK: Elo 52.3%, market 51.1%
    Fair odds
    VGK -104
    EDM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    EDM 3.2 – 3.3 VGK
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorEDMVGKWhy
    Team rating15671544Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies−2+1EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsVGK +16 EloVGK 52.3%
    Market-implied ratingsVGK 57.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastVGK 56.7%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastVGK 51.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights compared, with each team's league rank
    EDMStatVGK
    11th of 323.2Goals scored3.46th of 32
    14th of 322.9Goals allowed2.73rd of 32
    11th of 32+0.3Margin+0.74th of 32
    3rd of 3254.3%Shot share53.7%4th of 32
    19th of 3289.7%Save percentage90.3%12th of 32
    3rd of 327–3Last 106–49th of 32
    4th of 3223–18Road vs home29–124th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    OilersGolden Knights
    1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonEDMVGK
    Puck line36–5649–43
    Last 107–32–8
    Favorite22–5135–40
    Underdog14–514–3
    Overs–unders42–5043–49
    Overs–unders, last 107–36–4

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    EDM 7–4 VGK in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.