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Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast

FinalSeries tied 1-1

Away

Oilers

48-29-5

3–0

at

Home

Stars

50-26-6

EDM 49%DAL 51%

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American Airlines Center · ESPN, ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.

DAL favored EDM favored3 scoring plays
P1P2P3DAL50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Stars

    Scoring summary

    • P216:36Connor Brown Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (8), Jake Walman (2)3–0
    • P215:23Brett Kulak Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (17), Evan Bouchard (10)2–0
    • P15:51Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (9), Leon Draisaitl (14)1–0

    Turning points

    The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P15:51Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (9), Leon Draisaitl (14)EDM 1 – 0 DAL · EDM 49% → 64% +15
    2. P215:23Brett Kulak Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (17), Evan Bouchard (10)EDM 2 – 0 DAL · EDM 71% → 87% +16
    3. P216:36Connor Brown Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (8), Jake Walman (2)EDM 3 – 0 DAL · EDM 88% → 96% +8

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Stars 51%

    Toss-upMiss
    EDM 49%DAL 51%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

    Market
    DAL 51%
    ML EDM -105 / DAL -115
    Pre-line forecast
    DAL 54%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    DAL 56%
    Ratings vs. market
    +4.4 pts
    DAL: Elo 55.5%, market 51.1%
    Fair odds
    DAL -104
    EDM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    EDM 3.2 – 3.3 DAL
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorEDMDALWhy
    Team rating15651566Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies−2+1EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsDAL +38 EloDAL 55.5%
    Market-implied ratingsDAL 53.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastDAL 53.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastDAL 51.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars compared, with each team's league rank
    EDMStatDAL
    11th of 323.2Goals scored3.43rd of 32
    14th of 322.9Goals allowed2.77th of 32
    11th of 32+0.3Margin+0.65th of 32
    3rd of 3254.3%Shot share49.4%18th of 32
    19th of 3289.7%Save percentage91.1%4th of 32
    3rd of 327–3Last 103–725th of 32
    4th of 3223–18Road vs home28–126th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    OilersStars
    1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonEDMDAL
    Puck line37–5744–52
    Last 107–35–5
    Favorite22–5133–42
    Underdog15–611–10
    Overs–unders43–5143–53
    Overs–unders, last 106–45–5

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    EDM 6–7 DAL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.