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Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalEDM leads series 3-1

Away

Stars

50-26-6

1–4

at

Home

Oilers

48-29-5

DAL 44%EDM 56%

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Rogers Place · ESPN, ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored DAL favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3EDM50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • P319:10Adam Henrique Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (19), Jake Walman (3)1–4
  • P317:33Kasperi Kapanen Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Brett Kulak (4), Leon Draisaitl (16)1–3
  • P29:20Corey Perry Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (13), Connor McDavid (18)1–2
  • P26:57Jason Robertson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (8), Mikael Granlund (5)1–1
  • P111:23Leon Draisaitl Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (12), Corey Perry (3)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P111:23Leon Draisaitl Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (12), Corey Perry (3)DAL 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 56% → 71% +15
  2. P26:57Jason Robertson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (8), Mikael Granlund (5)DAL 1 – 1 EDM · DAL 27% → 45% +18
  3. P29:20Corey Perry Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (13), Connor McDavid (18)DAL 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 54% → 73% +19
  4. P317:33Kasperi Kapanen Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Brett Kulak (4), Leon Draisaitl (16)DAL 1 – 3 EDM · EDM 97% → >99% +3
  5. P319:10Adam Henrique Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (19), Jake Walman (3)DAL 1 – 4 EDM · EDM >99% → 100% +0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 56%

LeanHit
DAL 44%EDM 56%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
EDM 56%
ML DAL +120 / EDM -140
Pre-line forecast
EDM 59%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 58%
Ratings vs. market
+2.1 pts
EDM: Elo 58.3%, market 56.2%
Fair odds
EDM -128
DAL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DAL 3.1 – 3.4 EDM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALEDMWhy
Team rating15561575Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−2+2DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +58 EloEDM 58.3%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 59.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 59.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 56.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatEDM
3rd of 323.4Goals scored3.211th of 32
7th of 322.7Goals allowed2.914th of 32
5th of 32+0.6Margin+0.311th of 32
18th of 3249.4%Shot share54.3%3rd of 32
4th of 3291.1%Save percentage89.7%19th of 32
25th of 323–7Last 107–33rd of 32
7th of 3222–18Road vs home25–1613th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

StarsOilers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDALEDM
Puck line44–5439–57
Last 104–68–2
Favorite33–4323–51
Underdog11–1116–6
Overs–unders44–5444–52
Overs–unders, last 104–65–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 7–8 EDM in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.