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Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

Final/OTEDM leads series 1-0

Away

Panthers

47-31-4

3–4

at

Home

Oilers

48-29-5

FLA 48%EDM 52%

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Rogers Place · TNT, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored FLA favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTEDM50%FLA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Panthers

Scoring summary

  • OT19:29Leon Draisaitl Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (22), Corey Perry (4)3–4
  • P36:33Mattias Ekholm Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (21), Kasperi Kapanen (2)3–3
  • P23:17Viktor Arvidsson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (6), Evan Bouchard (12)3–2
  • P22:00Sam Bennett Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (6), Carter Verhaeghe (10)3–1
  • P112:30Brad Marchand Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (5), Evan Rodrigues (11)2–1
  • P110:49Sam Bennett Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (9), Matthew Tkachuk (12)1–1
  • P11:06Leon Draisaitl Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (1), Jake Walman (6)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P110:49Sam Bennett Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (9), Matthew Tkachuk (12)FLA 1 – 1 EDM · FLA 33% → 48% +15
  2. P112:30Brad Marchand Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (5), Evan Rodrigues (11)FLA 2 – 1 EDM · FLA 48% → 64% +16
  3. P23:17Viktor Arvidsson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (6), Evan Bouchard (12)FLA 3 – 2 EDM · EDM 19% → 34% +15
  4. P36:33Mattias Ekholm Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (21), Kasperi Kapanen (2)FLA 3 – 3 EDM · EDM 23% → 51% +28
  5. OT19:29Leon Draisaitl Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (22), Corey Perry (4)FLA 3 – 4 EDM · EDM 51% → 100% +49

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 52%

Toss-upHit
FLA 48%EDM 52%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
EDM 52%
ML FLA +100 / EDM -120
Pre-line forecast
EDM 47%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 55%
Ratings vs. market
+3.2 pts
EDM: Elo 55.4%, market 52.2%
Fair odds
EDM -109
FLA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
FLA 3.2 – 3.3 EDM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorFLAEDMWhy
Team rating15791584Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+5+3FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +37 EloEDM 55.4%
Market-implied ratingsFLA 54.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastFLA 52.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 52.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
FLAStatEDM
14th of 323.1Goals scored3.211th of 32
6th of 322.7Goals allowed2.914th of 32
10th of 32+0.4Margin+0.311th of 32
2nd of 3254.6%Shot share54.3%3rd of 32
10th of 3290.5%Save percentage89.7%19th of 32
25th of 323–7Last 107–33rd of 32
14th of 3219–21Road vs home25–1613th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PanthersOilers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonFLAEDM
Puck line48–5141–57
Last 107–38–2
Favorite34–4724–51
Underdog14–417–6
Overs–unders49–5045–53
Overs–unders, last 106–45–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

FLA 8–3 EDM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.