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Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast

FinalFLA leads series 2-1

Away

Oilers

48-29-5

1–6

at

Home

Panthers

47-31-4

EDM 43%FLA 57%

You didn't pick this one.

Amerant Bank Arena · TNT, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.

FLA favored EDM favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3FLA50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Oilers

Scoring summary

  • P316:10Evan Rodrigues Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Niko Mikkola (3), Gustav Forsling (4)1–6
  • P33:27Aaron Ekblad Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (10), Matthew Tkachuk (13)1–5
  • P27:26Sam Bennett Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (12)1–4
  • P23:00Sam Reinhart Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (12)1–3
  • P21:40Corey Perry Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (15), Mattias Ekholm (2)1–2
  • P117:45Carter Verhaeghe Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (13), Nate Schmidt (9)0–2
  • P10:56Brad Marchand Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (10), Eetu Luostarinen (11)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P10:56Brad Marchand Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (10), Eetu Luostarinen (11)EDM 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 57% → 71% +14
  2. P117:45Carter Verhaeghe Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (13), Nate Schmidt (9)EDM 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 72% → 85% +13
  3. P21:40Corey Perry Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (15), Mattias Ekholm (2)EDM 1 – 2 FLA · EDM 15% → 27% +13
  4. P23:00Sam Reinhart Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (12)EDM 1 – 3 FLA · FLA 73% → 86% +13
  5. P27:26Sam Bennett Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (12)EDM 1 – 4 FLA · FLA 87% → 95% +8

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Panthers 57%

LeanHit
EDM 43%FLA 57%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
FLA 57%
ML EDM +125 / FLA -145
Pre-line forecast
FLA 59%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
FLA 55%
Ratings vs. market
−2.3 pts
FLA: Elo 54.8%, market 57.1%
Fair odds
FLA -133
EDM +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 3.0 – 3.5 FLA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMFLAWhy
Team rating15831580Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies0+2EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsFLA +33 EloFLA 54.8%
Market-implied ratingsFLA 60.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastFLA 59.1%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastFLA 57.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatFLA
11th of 323.2Goals scored3.114th of 32
14th of 322.9Goals allowed2.76th of 32
11th of 32+0.3Margin+0.410th of 32
3rd of 3254.3%Shot share54.6%2nd of 32
19th of 3289.7%Save percentage90.5%10th of 32
3rd of 327–3Last 103–725th of 32
4th of 3223–18Road vs home26–149th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersPanthers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMFLA
Puck line41–5950–51
Last 106–48–2
Favorite24–5334–47
Underdog17–616–4
Overs–unders47–5351–50
Overs–unders, last 106–47–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 4–9 FLA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.