Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalFLA leads series 3-2

Away

Panthers

47-31-4

5–2

at

Home

Oilers

48-29-5

FLA 50%EDM 50%

You didn't pick this one.

Rogers Place · TNT, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored FLA favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3EDM50%FLA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Panthers
Oilers

Scoring summary

  • P318:41Eetu Luostarinen Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none5–2
  • P316:47Corey Perry Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (22), Darnell Nurse (5)4–2
  • P38:10Sam Reinhart Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (14)4–1
  • P37:24Connor McDavid Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (16), Mattias Ekholm (5)3–1
  • P35:12Brad Marchand Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (13)3–0
  • P118:06Sam Bennett Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (15)2–0
  • P19:12Brad Marchand Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (11)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P19:12Brad Marchand Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (11)FLA 1 – 0 EDM · FLA 50% → 65% +15
  2. P118:06Sam Bennett Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (15)FLA 2 – 0 EDM · FLA 67% → 81% +14
  3. P35:12Brad Marchand Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (13)FLA 3 – 0 EDM · FLA 93% → 99% +6
  4. P37:24Connor McDavid Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (16), Mattias Ekholm (5)FLA 3 – 1 EDM · EDM <1% → 6% +5
  5. P38:10Sam Reinhart Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (14)FLA 4 – 1 EDM · FLA 95% → >99% +4

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 50%

Toss-upMiss
FLA 50%EDM 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
EDM 50%
ML FLA -110 / EDM -110
Pre-line forecast
EDM 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 55%
Ratings vs. market
+4.8 pts
EDM: Elo 54.8%, market 50.0%
Fair odds
EDM -100
FLA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
FLA 3.3 – 3.3 EDM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorFLAEDMWhy
Team rating15821581Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+10FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +33 EloEDM 54.8%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 51.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 52.3%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 50.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
FLAStatEDM
14th of 323.1Goals scored3.211th of 32
6th of 322.7Goals allowed2.914th of 32
10th of 32+0.4Margin+0.311th of 32
2nd of 3254.6%Shot share54.3%3rd of 32
10th of 3290.5%Save percentage89.7%19th of 32
25th of 323–7Last 107–33rd of 32
14th of 3219–21Road vs home25–1613th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PanthersOilers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonFLAEDM
Puck line51–5242–60
Last 108–26–4
Favorite35–4824–53
Underdog16–418–7
Overs–unders53–5049–53
Overs–unders, last 108–27–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

FLA 10–5 EDM in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.