Montreal Canadiens at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists3
- Nick SuzukiPoints3
Blackhawks- Sam RinzelGoals1
- Teuvo TeravainenAssists2
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:45Kaiden Guhle Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (5), Lane Hutson (1)3–2
- P29:15Connor Bedard Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Frank Nazar (4), Teuvo Teravainen (3)2–2
- P25:45Zachary Bolduc Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (2), Nick Suzuki (4)2–1
- P24:34Sam Rinzel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (2), Frank Nazar (3)1–1
- P22:45Cole Caufield Goal (1) Batted, assists: Zachary Bolduc (1), Nick Suzuki (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:45Cole Caufield Goal (1) Batted, assists: Zachary Bolduc (1), Nick Suzuki (3)MTL 1 – 0 CHI · MTL 58% → 75% +17MTL 58% → 75%+17 pts
- P24:34Sam Rinzel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (2), Frank Nazar (3)MTL 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 25% → 42% +17CHI 25% → 42%+17 pts
- P25:45Zachary Bolduc Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (2), Nick Suzuki (4)MTL 2 – 1 CHI · MTL 58% → 75% +17MTL 58% → 75%+17 pts
- P29:15Connor Bedard Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Frank Nazar (4), Teuvo Teravainen (3)MTL 2 – 2 CHI · CHI 25% → 43% +18CHI 25% → 43%+18 pts
- P319:45Kaiden Guhle Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (5), Lane Hutson (1)MTL 3 – 2 CHI · MTL 51% → >99% +49MTL 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 60%
- ML MTL -165 / CHI +140
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- MTL: Elo 54.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MTL -149
- CHI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.5 – 3.0 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +3 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +29 Elo | MTL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.931st of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.8% | Shot share | 44.0%32nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.4%25th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3217–24 | Road vs home | 15–2631st of 32 |
| 5th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15032nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321485 | Elo rating | 141731st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  MTL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 50–37 | 44–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 46–27 | 43–35 |
| Overs–unders | 46–41 | 46–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–2 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.