Montreal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Mike MathesonGoals1
- Brendan GallagherAssists2
- Mike MathesonPoints2
Red Wings- Dylan LarkinGoals1
- Patrick KaneAssists1
- Dylan LarkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P217:12Juraj Slafkovský Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (1), Nick Suzuki (2)5–1
- P25:19Alexandre Carrier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Arber Xhekaj (1), Brendan Gallagher (3)4–1
- P119:53Mike Matheson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (1), Noah Dobson (1)3–1
- P112:43Oliver Kapanen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (1), Ivan Demidov (1)2–1
- P110:14Zachary Bolduc Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (2), Mike Matheson (1)1–1
- P13:50Dylan Larkin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (1), Moritz Seider (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:50Dylan Larkin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (1), Moritz Seider (1)MTL 0 – 1 DET · DET 54% → 68% +14DET 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P110:14Zachary Bolduc Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (2), Mike Matheson (1)MTL 1 – 1 DET · MTL 31% → 46% +15MTL 31% → 46%+15 pts
- P112:43Oliver Kapanen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (1), Ivan Demidov (1)MTL 2 – 1 DET · MTL 46% → 62% +16MTL 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P119:53Mike Matheson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (1), Noah Dobson (1)MTL 3 – 1 DET · MTL 64% → 79% +15MTL 64% → 79%+15 pts
- P25:19Alexandre Carrier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Arber Xhekaj (1), Brendan Gallagher (3)MTL 4 – 1 DET · MTL 81% → 91% +10MTL 81% → 91%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML MTL +110 / DET -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- DET: Elo 60.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- MTL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.1 – 3.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −8 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +75 Elo | DET 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.8% | Shot share | 48.9%24th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.6%21st of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 18th of 3217–24 | Road vs home | 22–1918th of 32 |
| 5th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 32 |
| 25th of 321478 | Elo rating | 149717th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  MTL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 50–37 | 48–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 46–27 | 41–20 |
| Overs–unders | 46–41 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 4–4 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.