Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Oliver KapanenGoals1
- Brendan GallagherAssists1
- Zack BolducPoints1
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals1
- William NylanderAssists2
- William NylanderPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:45William Nylander Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Steven Lorentz (2), John Tavares (2)2–5
- P318:28Auston Matthews Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (2)2–4
- P39:02Morgan Rielly Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (1), Matias Maccelli (1)2–3
- P25:40Calle Jarnkrok Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (1), Steven Lorentz (1)2–2
- P21:30Zachary Bolduc Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brendan Gallagher (1), Kirby Dach (1)2–1
- P15:39Oliver Kapanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P11:00Bobby McMann Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: William Nylander (1), John Tavares (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:00Bobby McMann Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: William Nylander (1), John Tavares (1)MTL 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 61% → 74% +13TOR 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P15:39Oliver Kapanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 1 – 1 TOR · MTL 26% → 40% +14MTL 26% → 40%+14 pts
- P21:30Zachary Bolduc Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brendan Gallagher (1), Kirby Dach (1)MTL 2 – 1 TOR · MTL 41% → 59% +18MTL 41% → 59%+18 pts
- P25:40Calle Jarnkrok Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (1), Steven Lorentz (1)MTL 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 39% → 58% +19TOR 39% → 58%+19 pts
- P39:02Morgan Rielly Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (1), Matias Maccelli (1)MTL 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 55% → 83% +29TOR 55% → 83%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 61%
- ML MTL +145 / TOR -170
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 64.6%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -154
- MTL +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.4 – 3.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +14 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +104 Elo | TOR 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.58th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.8% | Shot share | 48.9%23rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 91.2%3rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 18th of 3217–24 | Road vs home | 27–147th of 32 |
| 5th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150020th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321481 | Elo rating | 15375th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  MTL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 50–37 | 48–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 25–37 |
| Underdog | 46–27 | 23–10 |
| Overs–unders | 46–41 | 49–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 1–6 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.