Chicago Blackhawks at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists1
- Andre BurakovskyPoints2
Bruins- Casey MittelstadtGoals1
- Pavel ZachaAssists1
- Elias LindholmPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:12Fraser Minten Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none3–4
- P32:22Andre Burakovsky Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Artyom Levshunov (1), Frank Nazar (2)3–3
- P30:15Elias Lindholm Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (2), David Pastrnak (3)2–3
- P29:10Tanner Jeannot Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Eyssimont (1), Henri Jokiharju (1)2–2
- P22:22Louis Crevier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (1), Nick Foligno (1)2–1
- P18:19Connor Bedard Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (1), Colton Dach (1)1–1
- P13:53Casey Mittelstadt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:22Louis Crevier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (1), Nick Foligno (1)CHI 2 – 1 BOS · CHI 42% → 60% +18CHI 42% → 60%+18 pts
- P29:10Tanner Jeannot Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Eyssimont (1), Henri Jokiharju (1)CHI 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 38% → 58% +20BOS 38% → 58%+20 pts
- P30:15Elias Lindholm Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (2), David Pastrnak (3)CHI 2 – 3 BOS · BOS 56% → 79% +22BOS 56% → 79%+22 pts
- P32:22Andre Burakovsky Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Artyom Levshunov (1), Frank Nazar (2)CHI 3 – 3 BOS · CHI 21% → 44% +24CHI 21% → 44%+24 pts
- OT2:12Fraser Minten Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneCHI 3 – 4 BOS · BOS 52% → 96% +44BOS 52% → 96%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 61%
- ML CHI +145 / BOS -170
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 60.8%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -154
- CHI +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.4 – 3.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −2 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +76 Elo | BOS 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.628th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.0% | Shot share | 48.1%28th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.2%27th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 30th of 3210–31 | Road vs home | 20–2122nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15033rd of 32 |
| 31st of 321418 | Elo rating | 147924th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  CHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–38 | 38–44 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 10–24 |
| Underdog | 43–35 | 28–20 |
| Overs–unders | 46–36 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–3 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.