Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints3
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- Aliaksei ProtasAssists1
- Tom WilsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:02Morgan Geekie Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (2), Elias Lindholm (1)3–1
- P37:41Elias Lindholm Goal (1) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (1), Pavel Zacha (1)2–1
- P37:03Tom Wilson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (1), Aliaksei Protas (1)1–1
- P212:07David Pastrnak Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (1), Morgan Geekie (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:07David Pastrnak Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (1), Morgan Geekie (1)BOS 1 – 0 WSH · BOS 42% → 63% +21BOS 42% → 63%+21 pts
- P37:03Tom Wilson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (1), Aliaksei Protas (1)BOS 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 26% → 56% +30WSH 26% → 56%+30 pts
- P37:41Elias Lindholm Goal (1) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (1), Pavel Zacha (1)BOS 2 – 1 WSH · BOS 44% → 75% +30BOS 44% → 75%+30 pts
- P319:02Morgan Geekie Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (2), Elias Lindholm (1)BOS 3 – 1 WSH · BOS >99% → >99% +0BOS >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 62%
- ML BOS +155 / WSH -185
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 62.3%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -166
- BOS +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.4 – 3.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +1 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +87 Elo | WSH 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 67.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 66.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.52nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.73rd of 32 |
| 28th of 3248.1% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3213–28 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 32 |
| 26th of 321474 | Elo rating | 152212th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  BOS |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–44 | 51–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–24 | 24–28 |
| Underdog | 28–20 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 42–40 | 46–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–4 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.