Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ilya MikheyevGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists3
- Connor BedardPoints3
Blues- Jake NeighboursGoals1
- Jake NeighboursAssists1
- Jake NeighboursPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:21Ryan Greene Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (1), Connor Bedard (4)8–3
- P311:28Tyler Tucker Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (1)7–3
- P35:03Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (5), Connor Bedard (3)7–2
- P31:17Ryan Donato Goal (1) Poke, assists: Louis Crevier (1), Ilya Mikheyev (1)6–2
- P28:52Jason Dickinson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (2)5–2
- P24:32Frank Nazar Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (3), Wyatt Kaiser (1)4–2
- P22:49Lukas Reichel Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Alex Vlasic (1), Connor Bedard (2)3–2
- P114:54Dylan Holloway Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (2)2–2
- P15:23Lukas Reichel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Grzelcyk (1)2–1
- P14:29Jake Neighbours Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (2), Pavel Buchnevich (3)1–1
- P13:02Ilya Mikheyev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:29Jake Neighbours Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (2), Pavel Buchnevich (3)CHI 1 – 1 STL · STL 53% → 67% +15STL 53% → 67%+15 pts
- P15:23Lukas Reichel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Grzelcyk (1)CHI 2 – 1 STL · CHI 33% → 48% +15CHI 33% → 48%+15 pts
- P114:54Dylan Holloway Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (2)CHI 2 – 2 STL · STL 49% → 66% +16STL 49% → 66%+16 pts
- P22:49Lukas Reichel Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Alex Vlasic (1), Connor Bedard (2)CHI 3 – 2 STL · CHI 36% → 54% +18CHI 36% → 54%+18 pts
- P24:32Frank Nazar Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (3), Wyatt Kaiser (1)CHI 4 – 2 STL · CHI 55% → 72% +18CHI 55% → 72%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- STL 68%
- ML CHI +200 / STL -240
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- STL: Elo 70.9%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- STL -212
- CHI +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.2 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −3 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +155 Elo | STL 70.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 72.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 72.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 30th of 3239.7% | Shot share | 53.3%12th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 88.6%21st of 32 |
| 24th of 310–2 | Road vs home | 0–121st of 30 |
| 15th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 149122nd of 32 |
| 31st of 321418 | Elo rating | 15299th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  CHI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–38 | 52–37 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 13–17 |
| Underdog | 43–35 | 39–20 |
| Overs–unders | 46–36 | 45–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–6 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.