St. Louis Blues at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jake NeighboursGoals2
- Robert ThomasAssists1
- Jake NeighboursPoints2
Flames- Matt CoronatoGoals2
- Kevin BahlAssists1
- Matt CoronatoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:33Pius Suter Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Tucker (1), Nathan Walker (1)4–2
- P311:07Jake Neighbours Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Colton Parayko (1), Cam Fowler (1)3–2
- P214:57Matt Coronato Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Bahl (1)2–2
- P214:25Robert Thomas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (1), Justin Faulk (1)2–1
- P212:41Jake Neighbours Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Robert Thomas (1), Pavel Buchnevich (1)1–1
- P114:49Matt Coronato Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (2), Nazem Kadri (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:49Matt Coronato Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (2), Nazem Kadri (2)STL 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 48% → 65% +16CGY 48% → 65%+16 pts
- P212:41Jake Neighbours Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Robert Thomas (1), Pavel Buchnevich (1)STL 1 – 1 CGY · STL 31% → 51% +21STL 31% → 51%+21 pts
- P214:25Robert Thomas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (1), Justin Faulk (1)STL 2 – 1 CGY · STL 51% → 72% +21STL 51% → 72%+21 pts
- P214:57Matt Coronato Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Bahl (1)STL 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 27% → 49% +21CGY 27% → 49%+21 pts
- P311:07Jake Neighbours Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Colton Parayko (1), Cam Fowler (1)STL 3 – 2 CGY · STL 51% → 83% +33STL 51% → 83%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML STL -120 / CGY +100
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- STL: Elo 48.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- CGY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.8 – 2.7 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +1 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +11 Elo | CGY 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 51.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.915th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 50.4%13th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.5%9th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 11th of 3220–21 | Road vs home | 23–1816th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149826th of 32 |
| 11th of 321520 | Elo rating | 149118th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  STL |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 52–37 | 42–40 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–17 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 39–20 | 31–22 |
| Overs–unders | 45–44 | 35–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 6–0 CGY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.