Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Matvei GridinGoals1
- Matt CoronatoAssists1
- Blake ColemanPoints1
Oilers- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsGoals1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsAssists2
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Nazem Kadri Goal Backhand2–1
- SO0:00Morgan Frost Goal Snap Shot2–1
- SO0:00Leon Draisaitl Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P30:40Blake Coleman Goal (1) Poke, assists: none3–3
- P214:47Connor Zary Goal (1) Batted, assists: Adam Klapka (1)2–3
- P212:40Matvei Gridin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (1), Matt Coronato (1)1–3
- P28:32Leon Draisaitl Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: David Tomasek (1), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2)0–3
- P116:11Andrew Mangiapane Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (2), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1)0–2
- P19:53Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (1), Connor McDavid (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:53Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (1), Connor McDavid (1)CGY 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 64% → 77% +14EDM 64% → 77%+14 pts
- P116:11Andrew Mangiapane Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (2), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1)CGY 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 78% → 88% +11EDM 78% → 88%+11 pts
- P28:32Leon Draisaitl Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: David Tomasek (1), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2)CGY 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 90% → 96% +6EDM 90% → 96%+6 pts
- P214:47Connor Zary Goal (1) Batted, assists: Adam Klapka (1)CGY 2 – 3 EDM · CGY 8% → 21% +12CGY 8% → 21%+12 pts
- P30:40Blake Coleman Goal (1) Poke, assists: noneCGY 3 – 3 EDM · CGY 19% → 41% +22CGY 19% → 41%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 65%
- ML CGY +175 / EDM -210
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- EDM: Elo 62.5%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- EDM -186
- CGY +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.3 – 3.2 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −4 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +89 Elo | EDM 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 62.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 15th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.914th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 54.3%3rd of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.7%19th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 15th of 3218–23 | Road vs home | 25–1613th of 32 |
| 26th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149632nd of 32 |
| 20th of 321492 | Elo rating | 15533rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  CGY |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–40 | 42–62 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 24–54 |
| Underdog | 31–22 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 35–47 | 50–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–5 EDM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.