Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Morgan FrostGoals1
- Joel FarabeeAssists1
- Morgan FrostPoints1
Canucks- Filip ChytilGoals2
- Drew O'ConnorAssists1
- Filip ChytilPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:06Brock Boeser Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (1), Jake DeBrusk (1)1–5
- P313:06Morgan Frost Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (1), Joel Farabee (1)1–4
- P311:43Jonathan Lekkerimäki Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evander Kane (1), Conor Garland (1)0–4
- P38:53Filip Chytil Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Arshdeep Bains (1)0–3
- P32:54Filip Chytil Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P114:53Kiefer Sherwood Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:53Kiefer Sherwood Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (1)CGY 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 62% → 77% +15VAN 62% → 77%+15 pts
- P32:54Filip Chytil Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 81% → 94% +13VAN 81% → 94%+13 pts
- P38:53Filip Chytil Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Arshdeep Bains (1)CGY 0 – 3 VAN · VAN 97% → >99% +3VAN 97% → >99%+3 pts
- P311:43Jonathan Lekkerimäki Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evander Kane (1), Conor Garland (1)CGY 0 – 4 VAN · VAN >99% → >99% +0VAN >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P313:06Morgan Frost Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (1), Joel Farabee (1)CGY 1 – 4 VAN · CGY <1% → <1% +0CGY <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 64%
- ML CGY +165 / VAN -195
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- VAN: Elo 59.7%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- VAN -175
- CGY +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.4 – 3.1 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +5 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +68 Elo | VAN 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 15th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 48.8%25th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.4%24th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3218–23 | Road vs home | 17–2430th of 32 |
| 27th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149828th of 32 |
| 18th of 321495 | Elo rating | 149617th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  CGY |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–40 | 39–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 10–25 |
| Underdog | 31–22 | 29–18 |
| Overs–unders | 35–47 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 3–5 VAN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.