Utah Mammoth at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- JJ PeterkaGoals1
- John MarinoAssists1
- JJ PeterkaPoints1
Blackhawks- Ilya MikheyevGoals2
- Teuvo TeravainenAssists1
- Ilya MikheyevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:54Ilya Mikheyev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (4)1–3
- P38:55Andre Burakovsky Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (2), Colton Dach (2)1–2
- P31:02JJ Peterka Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (2), John Marino (1)1–1
- P29:21Ilya Mikheyev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (1), Ryan Donato (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:21Ilya Mikheyev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (1), Ryan Donato (1)UTA 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 45% → 65% +20CHI 45% → 65%+20 pts
- P31:02JJ Peterka Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (2), John Marino (1)UTA 1 – 1 CHI · UTA 29% → 54% +25UTA 29% → 54%+25 pts
- P38:55Andre Burakovsky Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (2), Colton Dach (2)UTA 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 47% → 78% +31CHI 47% → 78%+31 pts
- P319:54Ilya Mikheyev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (4)UTA 1 – 3 CHI · CHI 100% → 100% +0CHI 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 57%
- ML UTA -145 / CHI +125
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- UTA: Elo 53.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- UTA -133
- CHI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.0 – 2.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −19 | +3 | UTA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.48 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +27 Elo | UTA 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.931st of 32 |
| 9th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 44.0%32nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.4%25th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3220–21 | Road vs home | 15–2631st of 32 |
| 15th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15042nd of 32 |
| 16th of 321498 | Elo rating | 141431st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  UTA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–43 | 44–38 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 15–26 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 24–17 | 43–35 |
| Overs–unders | 39–43 | 46–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 3–1 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.
