Utah Mammoth at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Dylan GuentherGoals1
- Dylan GuentherAssists1
- Dylan GuentherPoints2
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals1
- Brady MartinAssists1
- Erik HaulaPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:56Dylan Guenther Goal (2) Backhand, assists: none3–2
- P311:37Jack McBain Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (2), Sean Durzi (1)2–2
- P213:13Erik Haula Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Luke Evangelista (1), Jonathan Marchessault (1)1–2
- P17:23Filip Forsberg Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Martin (1)1–1
- P12:21Logan Cooley Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (1), JJ Peterka (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:21Logan Cooley Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (1), JJ Peterka (1)UTA 1 – 0 NSH · UTA 53% → 67% +14UTA 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P17:23Filip Forsberg Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Martin (1)UTA 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 32% → 47% +15NSH 32% → 47%+15 pts
- P213:13Erik Haula Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Luke Evangelista (1), Jonathan Marchessault (1)UTA 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 48% → 69% +21NSH 48% → 69%+21 pts
- P311:37Jack McBain Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (2), Sean Durzi (1)UTA 2 – 2 NSH · UTA 17% → 51% +34UTA 17% → 51%+34 pts
- OT2:56Dylan Guenther Goal (2) Backhand, assists: noneUTA 3 – 2 NSH · UTA 51% → 98% +47UTA 51% → 98%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 53%
- ML UTA -125 / NSH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- UTA: Elo 48.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- UTA -114
- NSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.8 – 2.7 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | 0 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +9 Elo | NSH 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 51.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.327th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.730th of 32 |
| 9th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 50.7%10th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.2%28th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 11th of 3220–21 | Road vs home | 20–2122nd of 32 |
| 15th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 32 |
| 17th of 321496 | Elo rating | 146927th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  UTA |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–43 | 33–49 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–26 | 10–30 |
| Underdog | 24–17 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders | 39–43 | 33–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 1–2 NSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.
