Utah Mammoth at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Dylan GuentherGoals1
- Nick SchmaltzAssists1
- Dylan GuentherPoints1
Avalanche- Ross ColtonGoals1
- Jack DruryAssists1
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P32:52Nathan MacKinnon Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (3), Martin Necas (1)1–2
- P217:48Dylan Guenther Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (1), Nick Schmaltz (1)1–1
- P110:57Ross Colton Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (1), Victor Olofsson (1)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:57Ross Colton Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (1), Victor Olofsson (1)UTA 0 – 1 COL · COL 62% → 76% +14COL 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P217:48Dylan Guenther Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (1), Nick Schmaltz (1)UTA 1 – 1 COL · UTA 21% → 42% +21UTA 21% → 42%+21 pts
- P32:52Nathan MacKinnon Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (3), Martin Necas (1)UTA 1 – 2 COL · COL 57% → 81% +23COL 57% → 81%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 63%
- ML UTA +160 / COL -190
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- COL: Elo 64.0%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- COL -170
- UTA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.9 – 3.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +8 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +100 Elo | COL 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 61.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.43rd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.57th of 32 |
| 9th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 53.5%5th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.0%16th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 11th of 3220–21 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 32 |
| 15th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149731st of 32 |
| 16th of 321498 | Elo rating | 15523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  UTA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–43 | 39–50 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–26 | 31–44 |
| Underdog | 24–17 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 39–43 | 44–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 1–2 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.
