Colorado Avalanche at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Martin NecasGoals2
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Martin NecasPoints2
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:06Kevin Fiala Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (1), Anze Kopitar (1)4–1
- P310:43Martin Necas Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (2), Brock Nelson (1)4–0
- P214:42Artturi Lehkonen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (1), Nathan MacKinnon (2)3–0
- P27:00Sam Malinski Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none2–0
- P20:48Martin Necas Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (1), Artturi Lehkonen (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:48Martin Necas Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (1), Artturi Lehkonen (1)COL 1 – 0 LA · COL 52% → 69% +17COL 52% → 69%+17 pts
- P27:00Sam Malinski Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneCOL 2 – 0 LA · COL 70% → 85% +14COL 70% → 85%+14 pts
- P214:42Artturi Lehkonen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (1), Nathan MacKinnon (2)COL 3 – 0 LA · COL 88% → 96% +8COL 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P310:43Martin Necas Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (2), Brock Nelson (1)COL 4 – 0 LA · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P315:06Kevin Fiala Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (1), Anze Kopitar (1)COL 4 – 1 LA · LA <1% → <1% +0LA <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 52%
- ML COL -120 / LA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- COL: Elo 49.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -109
- LA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.8 – 2.7 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −3 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +7 Elo | LA 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.015th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.56th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.5% | Shot share | 52.4%6th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.8%5th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3223–18 | Road vs home | 31–101st of 32 |
| 30th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149731st of 32 |
| 4th of 321547 | Elo rating | 152910th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  COL |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–50 | 43–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 31–44 | 24–32 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 19–13 |
| Overs–unders | 44–45 | 39–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–2 LA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.