St. Louis Blues at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jimmy SnuggerudGoals2
- Nathan WalkerAssists1
- Jimmy SnuggerudPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:47Jake Neighbours Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P213:45Nick Bjugstad Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Nathan Walker (2), Alexandre Texier (1)4–2
- P212:12
Kiefer Sherwood Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2 - P28:13Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (2), Brayden Schenn (1)3–1
- P25:33Kiefer Sherwood Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Aatu Raty (1), Arshdeep Bains (2)2–1
- P22:10Brayden Schenn Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (1), Philip Broberg (1)2–0
- P18:48Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (1), Mathieu Joseph (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:48Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (1), Mathieu Joseph (1)STL 1 – 0 VAN · STL 47% → 63% +16STL 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P25:33Kiefer Sherwood Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Aatu Raty (1), Arshdeep Bains (2)STL 2 – 1 VAN · VAN 18% → 34% +15VAN 18% → 34%+15 pts
- P28:13Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (2), Brayden Schenn (1)STL 3 – 1 VAN · STL 67% → 83% +16STL 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P212:12Kiefer Sherwood Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSTL 3 – 2 VAN · VAN 15% → 32% +16VAN 15% → 32%+16 pts
- P213:45Nick Bjugstad Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Nathan Walker (2), Alexandre Texier (1)STL 4 – 2 VAN · STL 69% → 85% +16STL 69% → 85%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 53%
- ML STL +105 / VAN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- VAN: Elo 50.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- VAN -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.7 – 2.8 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −6 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +2 Elo | VAN 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 48.8%25th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.4%24th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3220–21 | Road vs home | 17–2430th of 32 |
| 19th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149827th of 32 |
| 11th of 321524 | Elo rating | 149718th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  STL |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 52–37 | 39–43 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–17 | 10–25 |
| Underdog | 39–20 | 29–18 |
| Overs–unders | 45–44 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–2 VAN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.