Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Vancouver Canucks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+

Away

Canucks

1-1-0

1–3

at

Home

Oilers

1-0-1

VAN 39%EDM 61%

You didn't pick this one.

Rogers Place · ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored VAN favored4 scoring plays
P1P2P3EDM50%VAN

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canucks

Scoring summary

  • P318:47Leon Draisaitl Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Darnell Nurse (1), Connor McDavid (3)1–3
  • P30:47Brock Boeser Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (1), Jake DeBrusk (2)1–2
  • P219:09Andrew Mangiapane Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none0–2
  • P212:21Noah Philp Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (1), Vasily Podkolzin (1)0–1

Turning points

The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P212:21Noah Philp Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (1), Vasily Podkolzin (1)VAN 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 58% → 77% +19
  2. P219:09Andrew Mangiapane Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneVAN 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 79% → 92% +14
  3. P30:47Brock Boeser Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (1), Jake DeBrusk (2)VAN 1 – 2 EDM · VAN 7% → 21% +14
  4. P318:47Leon Draisaitl Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Darnell Nurse (1), Connor McDavid (3)VAN 1 – 3 EDM · EDM >99% → >99% +0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 61%

LeanHit
VAN 39%EDM 61%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

Market
EDM 61%
ML VAN +150 / EDM -175
Pre-line forecast
EDM 63%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 61%
Ratings vs. market
−0.4 pts
EDM: Elo 61.0%, market 61.4%
Fair odds
EDM -159
VAN +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
VAN 2.4 – 3.1 EDM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorVANEDMWhy
Team rating15001550Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+7−1VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +77 EloEDM 61.0%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 63.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 63.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 61.4%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Vancouver Canucks and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
VANStatEDM
24th of 322.9Goals scored3.211th of 32
18th of 323.1Goals allowed2.914th of 32
20th of 32−0.2Margin+0.311th of 32
25th of 3248.8%Shot share54.3%3rd of 32
24th of 3289.4%Save percentage89.7%19th of 32
22nd of 324–6Last 107–33rd of 32
9th of 3221–20Road vs home25–1613th of 32
28th of 321498Opponent Elo149632nd of 32
15th of 321500Elo rating15504th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CanucksOilers
135014001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

Last season (2024-25)VANEDM
Puck line39–4342–62
Last 106–45–5
Favorite10–2524–54
Underdog29–1818–8
Overs–unders39–4350–54
Overs–unders, last 103–77–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

VAN 8–6 EDM in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.